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padding: 0px; font-size: 14px; color: rgb(102, 102, 102); line-height: 24px; text-indent: 24px; \">\n\t\t\u53e6\u4e00\u8fb9\u53a2\uff0c\u5728\u8c08\u5230\u79c1\u5b85\u4ef7\u683c\u8d70\u52bf\u524d\uff0c\u5176\u4e2d\u4e00\u4e2a\u80fd\u591f\u5f71\u54cd\u4ef7\u683c\u7684\u56e0\u7d20\u5c31\u662f\u65b0\u52a0\u5761\u7684\u7ecf\u6d4e\u8868\u73b0\u4e43\u81f3\u5168\u7403\u7684\u5b8f\u89c2\u7ecf\u6d4e\u3002\u867d\u7136\u65b0\u52a0\u5761\u7ecf\u6d4e\u786e\u5b9e\u6b63\u5728\u8d70\u8f6f\uff0c\u800c\u4e14\u5230\u4e862013\u5e74\u9884\u8ba1\u4e5f\u4e0d\u4f1a\u5f3a\u529b\u56de\u5f39\uff0c\u4f46\u300a\u65f6\u4ee3\u8d22\u667a\u300b\u76f8\u4fe1\uff0c\u65b0\u52a0\u5761\u7684\u7ecf\u6d4e\u8d70\u52bf\u5e76\u4e0d\u81f3\u4e8e\u4f1a\u4ee4\u80a1\u5e02\u6216\u623f\u5730\u4ea7\u5e02\u573a\u51fa\u73b0\u60b2\u5929\u60af\u4eba\u7684\u60c5\u666f\u3002<\/p>\n<p style=\"margin: 0px 0px 25px; padding: 0px; font-size: 14px; color: rgb(102, 102, 102); line-height: 24px; text-indent: 24px; \">\n\t\t<strong style=\"margin: 0px; padding: 0px; font-size: 12px; \">\u79c1\u5b85\u4ef7\u683c\u9ecf\u6027\u5f3a\uff0c\u6216\u5c0f\u5e45\u4e0b\u8c03<\/strong><\/p>\n<p style=\"margin: 0px 0px 25px; padding: 0px; font-size: 14px; color: rgb(102, 102, 102); line-height: 24px; text-indent: 24px; \">\n\t\t\u81f3\u4e8e\u5168\u7403\u7ecf\u6d4e\uff0c\u867d\u7136\u4ecd\u4e0d\u660e\u6717\uff0c\u4e5f\u6ca1\u6709\u83b7\u5f97\u663e\u8457\u7684\u6539\u53d8\uff0c\u4f46\u662f\u6b27\u5143\u533a\u7684\u60c5\u51b5\u5374\u6709\u6240\u7f13\u89e3\uff0c\u867d\u7136\u6ca1\u6709\u5f97\u5230\u6839\u6cbb\uff0c\u4f46\u57fa\u672c\u4e0a\u5df2\u7ecf\u6682\u65f6\u88ab\u538b\u5236\u4e0b\u6765\uff1b\u7f8e\u56fd\u7684\u7b2c\u4e09\u8f6e\u91cf\u5316\u5bbd\u677e\uff08QE3\uff09\u653f\u7b56\u51fa\u53f0\u540e\uff0c\u77ed\u671f\u5185\u6d41\u52a8\u8d44\u91d1\u4e5f\u5c06\u7ee7\u7eed\u5145\u88d5\uff0c\u6574\u4f53\u7ecf\u6d4e\u60c5\u51b5\uff0c\u867d\u7136\u6ca1\u6709\u5927\u597d\u6216\u5927\u574f\uff0c\u4f46\u4e5f\u6ca1\u6709\u8ba9\u4eba\u63aa\u624b\u4e0d\u53ca\uff0c\u81f3\u4e8e\u7f8e\u56fd\u6240\u9762\u5bf9\u7684&ldquo;\u8d22\u653f\u60ac\u5d16&rdquo;\uff08fiscal cliff\uff09\u6599\u4e0d\u4f1a\u6f14\u53d8\u6210\u7ecf\u6d4e\u60e8\u7978\u4e43\u81f3\u5728\u77ed\u671f\u5185\u5b9e\u8d28\u5f71\u54cd\u5168\u7403\u7ecf\u6d4e\uff0c\u56e0\u6b64\u5728\u8fd9\u6837\u4e00\u4e2a\u4e0e2012\u5e74\u4e0d\u76f8\u4e0a\u4e0b\u7684\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5927\u73af\u5883\u4e0b\uff0c\u80fd\u591f\u5de6\u53f3\u65b0\u52a0\u5761\u79c1\u5b85\u4ef7\u683c\u7684\u56e0\u7d20\uff0c\u4e5f\u548c\u7ec4\u5c4b\u5e02\u573a\u4e00\u6837\u3001\u53d6\u51b3\u4e8e\u5e02\u573a\u7684\u4f9b\u9700\u56e0\u7d20\u3002<\/p>\n<p style=\"margin: 0px 0px 25px; padding: 0px; font-size: 14px; color: rgb(102, 102, 102); line-height: 24px; text-indent: 24px; \">\n\t\t\u53bb\u5e74\u7684\u79c1\u5b85\u9500\u552e\u91cf\u4e0d\u4f46\u8d85\u8d8a\u4e86\u4e4b\u524d\u57282010\u5e74\u6240\u521b\u4e0b\u76841\u4e076292\u4e2a\u5355\u4f4d\u7684\u6700\u9ad8\u7eaa\u5f55\uff0c\u6574\u4f53\u9500\u552e\u91cf\u751a\u81f3\u5c06\u8d85\u8fc72\u4e07\u5355\u4f4d\u3002 &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p style=\"margin: 0px 0px 25px; padding: 0px; font-size: 14px; color: rgb(102, 102, 102); line-height: 24px; text-indent: 24px; \">\n\t\t\u8fdb\u51652013\u5e74\uff0c\u8bb8\u591a\u5927\u578b\u623f\u5730\u4ea7\u53d1\u5c55\u5546\u56e0\u4e3a\u6709\u96c4\u539a\u7684\u8d22\u529b\uff0c\u56e0\u6b64\u5728\u63a8\u51fa\u65b0\u5355\u4f4d\u65f6\u9884\u8ba1\u5c06\u7ee7\u7eed\u9009\u62e9\u4e0d\u628a\u5355\u4f4d\u5356\u5b8c\uff0c\u4e5f\u4e0d\u964d\u4ef7\uff0c\u8ba9\u4ef7\u683c\u7ee7\u7eed\u6709\u9ecf\u6027\uff0c\u56e0\u6b64\u5728\u9500\u552e\u91cf\u65b9\u9762\u5e94\u8be5\u4e0d\u4f1a\u6bd4\u53bb\u5e74\u66f4\u9ad8\u3002<\/p>\n<p style=\"margin: 0px 0px 25px; padding: 0px; font-size: 14px; color: rgb(102, 102, 102); line-height: 24px; text-indent: 24px; \">\n\t\t<strong style=\"margin: 0px; padding: 0px; font-size: 12px; \">2015<\/strong><strong style=\"margin: 0px; padding: 0px; font-size: 12px; \">\u5e74\u6599\u662f\u4f4e\u6f6e\u70b9<\/strong><\/p>\n<p style=\"margin: 0px 0px 25px; padding: 0px; font-size: 14px; color: rgb(102, 102, 102); line-height: 24px; text-indent: 24px; \">\n\t\t\u5982\u679c\u4ee5\u300a\u65f6\u4ee3\u8d22\u667a\u300b\u4e3a\u623f\u5730\u4ea7\u5e02\u573a\u7684\u5468\u671f\u6240\u5b9a\u4e0b\u7684\u65b0\u5b9a\u4e49\u6765\u770b\uff0c\u623f\u5730\u4ea7\u5e02\u573a\u5176\u5b9e\u8fd9\u51e0\u5e74\u4e00\u76f4\u5728\u8f6c\u53d8\uff0c\u5176\u4ef7\u683c\u57282008\u5e74\u91d1\u878d\u98ce\u66b4\u65f6\u8d70\u4e0b\u5761\uff0c\u867d\u7136\u8dcc\u5e45\u4e0d\u5927\uff0c\u800c\u4e14\u56de\u5f39\u901f\u5ea6\u60ca\u4eba\uff0c\u4e0d\u8fc7\uff0c\u90a3\u5f88\u53ef\u80fd\u5c31\u662f\u4e00\u4e2a\u4f4e\u6f6e(trough) \uff0c\u800c2012\u5e74\u5e94\u8be5\u79f0\u5f97\u4e0a\u662f\u9ad8\u6f6e(crest)\uff1b\u4e5f\u5c31\u662f\u8bf4\uff0c2013\u5e74\uff0c\u623f\u5730\u4ea7\u5e02\u573a\u5e94\u8be5\u5f00\u59cb\u5f80\u4e0b\u8d70\u4e86\u3002<\/p>\n<p style=\"margin: 0px 0px 25px; padding: 0px; font-size: 14px; color: rgb(102, 102, 102); line-height: 24px; text-indent: 24px; \">\n\t\t\u5230\u4e862015\u5e74\uff0c\u5f53\u79c1\u5b85\u4f9b\u5e94\u91cf\u8fbe\u5230\u9ad8\u5cf0\u65f6\uff0c\u300a\u65f6\u4ee3\u8d22\u667a\u300b\u76f8\u4fe1\uff0c\u90a3\u5c06\u662f\u53e6\u4e00\u4e2a\u4f4e\u6f6e\u70b9\uff0c\u4e0d\u8fc7\uff0c\u548c2008\u5e74\u4e00\u6837\uff0c\u623f\u4ef7\u5c4a\u65f6\u867d\u7136\u89e6\u5e95\uff0c\u4f46\u662f\u53ef\u80fd\u8dcc\u5e45\u4e0d\u5927\uff0c\u5e45\u5ea6\u53ef\u80fd\u4f1a\u572810%\u6216\u4ee5\u4e0b\uff0c\u548c\u4ee5\u5f80\u6240\u8c13\u7684&ldquo;\u5e38\u6001&rdquo;\u4f4e\u6f6e\u6240\u770b\u5230\u7684\u8dcc\u5e45\u5dee\u5f88\u8fdc\u3002<\/p>\n<p style=\"margin: 0px 0px 25px; padding: 0px; font-size: 14px; color: rgb(102, 102, 102); line-height: 24px; text-indent: 24px; \">\n\t\t\u4f46\u662f\uff0c\u8981\u77e5\u9053\u7684\u662f\uff0c\u623f\u5e02\u5df2\u7ecf\u548c\u5168\u7403\u7ecf\u6d4e\u4e00\u6837\uff0c\u4e0d\u80fd\u591f\u4ee5&ldquo;\u5e38\u6001&rdquo;\u53bb\u8fdb\u884c\u5206\u6790\uff0c\u800c\u662f\u4f1a\u5728\u6f14\u53d8\u7684\u8fc7\u7a0b\u4e2d\u51fa\u73b0\u8fdd\u53cd&ldquo;\u5e38\u6001&rdquo;\u7684\u73b0\u8c61\u53ca\u60c5\u666f\u3002\u5c31\u4ee5\u5168\u7403\u7ecf\u6d4e\u4e3a\u4f8b\uff0c\u5728\u8fc7\u53bb50\u5e74\u4ee5\u6765\uff0c\u7f8e\u56fd\u7684\u7ecf\u6d4e\u4f55\u65f6\u6709\u5982\u6b64\u6076\u52a3\u8fc7\uff1f\u6b27\u6d32\u56fd\u5bb6\u4f55\u65f6\u6709\u5982\u6b64\u72fc\u72c8\u8fc7\uff1f\u4e2d\u56fd\u4f55\u65f6\u6709\u5982\u6b64\u5bcc\u5f3a\u8fc7\uff1f\u6709\u8c01\u80fd\u591f\u9884\u6599\u5230\uff0c\u96f7\u66fc\u5144\u5f1f(Lehman Brothers)\u6216MF Global\u4f1a\u5012\u95ed\uff1f\u6b27\u6d32\u5f3a\u56fd\u4f1a\u503a\u52a1\u7d2f\u7d2f\uff1f\u8fd9\u4e9b\u90fd\u4e0d\u662f\u5e38\u6001\u6216\u5386\u53f2\u6570\u636e\u53ef\u4ee5\u89e3\u91ca\u7684\uff0c\u4e5f\u4e0d\u662f\u5206\u6790\u5e08\u53ef\u4ee5\u63a8\u7b97\u51fa\u6765\u7684\u5c40\u9762\u3002<\/p>\n<p style=\"margin: 0px 0px 25px; padding: 0px; font-size: 14px; color: rgb(102, 102, 102); line-height: 24px; text-indent: 24px; \">\n\t\t\u7136\u800c\uff0c\u867d\u7136\u623f\u4ef7\u57282013\u5e74\u9884\u8ba1\u4f1a\u8d70\u8f6f\uff0c\u4f46\u662f\uff0c\u6839\u636e\u300a\u65f6\u4ee3\u8d22\u667a\u300b\u7684&ldquo;\u4e00\u822c\u60c5\u5883&rdquo;(baseline scenario)\uff0c\u5927\u4f17\u79c1\u5b85\u5728\u5168\u5e74\u51fa\u73b05\uff05\u7684\u8d44\u672c\u503c (capital value depreciation)\u4e0b\u8c03\u662f\u6709\u53ef\u80fd\u7684\u3002<\/p>\n<p style=\"margin: 0px 0px 25px; padding: 0px; font-size: 14px; color: rgb(102, 102, 102); line-height: 24px; text-indent: 24px; \">\n\t\t\u4ee5&ldquo;\u978b\u76d2\u516c\u5bd3&rdquo; (shoe-box apartments) \u4e3a\u4f8b\uff0c\u8fd9\u7c7b\u79c1\u5b85\u7684\u6570\u91cf\u5728\u8fc7\u53bb\u56db\u5e74\u91cc\u589e\u52a0\u8fd1\u56db\u500d\uff0c\u5c3a\u4ef7\u4e5f\u4e0d\u65ad\u6500\u9ad8\uff0c\u6709\u4e9b\u65b0\u53d1\u5c55\u9879\u76ee\u7684\u978b\u76d2\u516c\u5bd3\u66f4\u5360\u603b\u5355\u4f4d\u6570\u91cf\u7684\u516b\u6210\uff0c\u800c\u5e02\u533a\u91cd\u5efa\u5c40(URA)\u4e5f\u8868\u793a\uff0c\u968f\u7740\u65b0\u79c1\u5b85\u9879\u76ee\u6709\u8d8a\u6765\u8d8a\u591a\u7684\u978b\u76d2\u516c\u5bd3\uff0c\u8fd9\u5c06\u5bfc\u81f4\u5df2\u5efa\u6210\u7684\u978b\u76d2\u516c\u5bd3\u6570\u91cf\u57282015\u5e74\u5e95\u8fbe\u5230\u7ea61\u4e071000\u4e2a\uff0c\u51e0\u4e4e\u662f2011\u5e742400\u4e2a\u5355\u4f4d\u7684\u4e94\u500d\u3002\u5728\u4f9b\u5e94\u4e0d\u65ad\u589e\u52a0\u7684\u60c5\u51b5\u4e0b\uff0c\u978b\u76d2\u516c\u5bd3\u7684\u5c3a\u4ef7\u76f8\u4fe1\u4e0d\u4f1a\u518d\u5448\u5927\u5e45\u5ea6\u7684\u589e\u957f\u3002<\/p>\n<p style=\"margin: 0px 0px 25px; padding: 0px; font-size: 14px; color: rgb(102, 102, 102); line-height: 24px; text-indent: 24px; \">\n\t\t<strong style=\"margin: 0px; padding: 0px; font-size: 12px; \">\u4e1c\u90e8\u5730\u94c1\u7ebf\u6599\u5c06\u63a8\u9ad8\u5c3a\u4ef7<\/strong><\/p>\n<p style=\"margin: 0px 0px 25px; padding: 0px; font-size: 14px; color: rgb(102, 102, 102); line-height: 24px; text-indent: 24px; \">\n\t\t\u4e0d\u8fc7\uff0c\u4e00\u4e9b\u5730\u70b9\u4f18\u8d8a\u7684\u79c1\u5b85\uff0c\u4f8b\u5982\u4f4d\u4e8e\u5e02\u533a\u53ca\u7b2c15\u533a\u7684\u79c1\u5b85\u76f8\u4fe1\u8fd8\u662f\u4f1a\u53d7\u5230\u4e70\u5bb6\u7684\u5782\u9752\uff0c\u79c1\u5b85\u7684\u5c3a\u4ef7\u4e0d\u4f46\u4e0d\u4f1a\u4e0b\u8dcc\uff0c\u53cd\u800c\u8fd8\u4f1a\u7ee7\u7eed\u6500\u9ad8\uff0c\u800c\u4e14\u4e00\u65e6\u653f\u5e9c\u5ba3\u5e03\u65b0\u7684\u4e1c\u90e8\u5730\u94c1\u7ebf(Eastern Region MRT Line)\u7684\u786e\u5b9e\u5730\u94c1\u7ad9\u540e\uff0c\u4e00\u4e9b\u5730\u533a\u4f8b\u5982\u5b9e\u4f01\u7eb3(siglap)\u3001\u4e1c\u6d77\u5cb8(east coast)\u3001\u9a6c\u6797\u767e\u5217 (marine parade)\u9760\u8fd1\u65b0\u5730\u94c1\u7ad9\u7684\u79c1\u5b85\uff0c\u5176\u5c3a\u4ef7\u76f8\u4fe1\u8fd8\u6709\u4e0a\u6da8\u7684\u7a7a\u95f4\u3002<\/p>\n<p style=\"margin: 0px 0px 25px; padding: 0px; font-size: 14px; color: rgb(102, 102, 102); line-height: 24px; text-indent: 24px; \">\n\t\t\u653f\u5e9c\u662f\u57282008\u5e74\u5ba3\u5e03\u5efa\u9020\u4e1c\u90e8\u5730\u94c1\u7ebf\uff0c\u5e76\u57282020\u5e74\u7ae3\u5de5\uff0c\u8be5\u7ebf\u5168\u7a0b21\u516c\u91cc\uff0c\u5171\u670912 \u4e2a\u5730\u94c1\u7ad9\u3002\u4e00\u822c\u76f8\u4fe1\uff0c\u653f\u5e9c\u4f1a\u5728\u4eca\u5e74\u516c\u5e03\u7ec6\u8282\uff0c\u5305\u62ec\u5730\u94c1\u7ad9\u7684\u786e\u5207\u4f4d\u7f6e\uff0c\u800c\u8fd9\u6761\u65b0\u5730\u94c1\u7ebf\u5c06\u8854\u63a5\u6a1f\u5b9c\u56fd\u9645\u673a\u573a(changi airport\uff09\u548c\u6ee8\u6d77\u6e7e(marina bay)\u5730\u94c1\u7ad9\uff0c\u574a\u95f4\u5df2\u6709\u5f88\u591a\u5bf9\u6cbf\u9014\u5730\u94c1\u7ad9\u7684\u786e\u5207\u4f4d\u7f6e\u4f20\u51fa\u8bf8\u591a\u731c\u6d4b\uff0c\u5176\u4e2d\u88ab\u8ba8\u8bba\u5f97\u6700\u4e3a\u70ed\u70c8\u7684\u662f\u9a6c\u6797\u767e\u5217\u5730\u94c1\u7ad9\u3002<\/p>\n<p style=\"margin: 0px 0px 25px; padding: 0px; font-size: 14px; 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