{"id":5847,"date":"2009-11-26T10:42:00","date_gmt":"2009-11-26T10:42:00","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.fortunetimes.sg\/cn\/?p=5847"},"modified":"2021-08-21T16:11:00","modified_gmt":"2021-08-21T08:11:00","slug":"e58db1e69cbae8bf87e5908e20e4bca4e7979be4bb8de59ca8","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/az.c.adneti.net\/cn\/?p=5847","title":{"rendered":"\u5371\u673a\u8fc7\u540e \u4f24\u75db\u4ecd\u5728"},"content":{"rendered":"

\n\t\u5982\u4eca\uff0c\u4e16\u754c\u5404\u5730\u5df2\u660e\u663e\u5d2d\u9732\u51fa\u5168\u7403\u590d\u82cf\u7684\u8ff9\u8c61\u3002\u867d\u7136“\u53cc\u5e95\u8870\u9000”\u7684\u98ce\u9669\u4f9d\u7136\u5b58\u5728\uff0c\u4f46\u8fd1\u51e0\u5468\u6765\uff0c\u7f8e\u56fd\u3001\u6b27\u5143\u533a\u548c\u65e5\u672c\u90fd\u5df2\u5ba3\u5e03\uff0c\u5b83\u4eec\u7684\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5728\u7b2c\u4e09\u5b63\u5ea6\u518d\u5ea6\u5b9e\u73b0\u589e\u957f\u3002\u65b0\u52a0\u5761\u7b49\u8d38\u6613\u4f9d\u8d56\u578b\u7ecf\u6d4e\u4f53\u4e5f\u51fa\u73b0\u590d\u82cf\uff0c\u7ecf\u6d4e\u589e\u901f\u521b\u5386\u53f2\u65b0\u9ad8\u3002<\/strong><\/p>\n

\n\t\uff08\u4f26\u6566\u8baf\uff0911<\/span>\u6708\u4e00\u4e2a\u72c2\u98ce\u5927\u4f5c\u7684\u65e9\u6668\uff0c\u4e00\u573a\u5b8f\u5927\u7684\u4e8c\u624b\u8f66\u62cd\u5356\u4f1a\u6b63\u5728\u4f26\u6566\u90ca\u5916\u4e00\u4e2a\u673a\u573a\u70ed\u706b\u671d\u5929\u7684\u5c55\u5f00\u3002\u4e8c\u624b\u8f66\u7684\u9500\u8def\u975e\u5e38\u4e4b\u597d\uff0c\u5176\u5e73\u5747\u552e\u4ef7\u5728\u8fc7\u53bb\u4e00\u5e74\u91cc\u5df2\u4e0a\u6da827%<\/span>\u3002\u82f1\u56fd\u6c7d\u8f66\u62cd\u5356\u516c\u53f8(British Car Auctions)<\/span>\u7684\u8482\u59c6•\u5185\u52d2(Tim Naylor)<\/span>\u8868\u793a\uff1a“\u8f6c\u673a\u662f\u5728\u4eca\u5e741<\/span>\u6708\u51fa\u73b0\u7684\u3002\u81ea\u90a3\u65f6\u8d77\uff0c\u6211\u4eec\u7684\u7ecf\u8425\u5f62\u52bf\u5c31\u8d8a\u6765\u8d8a\u597d\u3002”<\/span><\/p>\n

\n\t\u5982\u4eca\uff0c\u4e16\u754c\u5404\u5730\u5df2\u660e\u663e\u5d2d\u9732\u51fa\u5168\u7403\u590d\u82cf\u7684\u8ff9\u8c61\u3002\u867d\u7136“\u53cc\u5e95\u8870\u9000”\u7684\u98ce\u9669\u4f9d\u7136\u5b58\u5728\uff0c\u4f46\u8fd1\u51e0\u5468\u6765\uff0c\u7f8e\u56fd\u3001\u6b27\u5143\u533a\u548c\u65e5\u672c\u90fd\u5df2\u5ba3\u5e03\uff0c\u5b83\u4eec\u7684\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5728\u7b2c\u4e09\u5b63\u5ea6\u518d\u5ea6\u5b9e\u73b0\u589e\u957f\u3002\u4e00\u4e9b\u8d38\u6613\u4f9d\u8d56\u578b\u7ecf\u6d4e\u4f53\u4e5f\u51fa\u73b0\u590d\u82cf\uff0c\u7ecf\u6d4e\u589e\u901f\u521b\u5386\u53f2\u65b0\u9ad8\u3002\u8fc7\u53bb6<\/span>\u4e2a\u6708\u65b0\u52a0\u5761\u56fd\u6c11\u6536\u5165\u7684\u589e\u901f\uff0c\u662f\u81ea\u8be5\u56fd1975<\/span>\u5e74\u5f00\u59cb\u7f16\u5236\u5b63\u5ea6\u589e\u901f\u8bb0\u5f55\u4ee5\u6765\u6700\u9ad8\u7684\u3002<\/span> <\/span><\/p>\n

\n\t\u4f46\u5728\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5448\u73b0\u771f\u5b9e\u590d\u82cf\u7684\u540c\u65f6\uff0c\u672c\u6b21\u5168\u7403\u8870\u9000\u4e5f\u7ed9\u4e16\u754c\u7559\u4e0b\u4e86\u5207\u5b9e\u7684\u521b\u4f24\u3002\u6709\u4e9b\u521b\u4f24\u662f\u6c38\u4e45\u6027\u7684\uff0c\u8bb8\u591a\u521b\u4f24\u9700\u8981\u5f88\u957f\u65f6\u95f4\u624d\u4f1a\u6108\u5408\u3002\u5168\u7403\u4ea7\u51fa\u7684\u589e\u901f\u5c06\u957f\u671f\u4f4e\u4e8e\u5371\u673a\u524d\u7684\u9884\u671f\uff0c\u516c\u5171\u8d22\u653f\u906d\u5230\u4e25\u91cd\u524a\u5f31\uff0c\u957f\u671f\u5931\u4e1a\u9020\u6210\u6076\u679c\uff0c\u4e0d\u5e73\u7b49\u73b0\u8c61\u65e5\u76ca\u4e25\u91cd\uff0c\u5168\u7403\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5b9e\u529b\u7684\u5e73\u8861\u6c38\u4e45\u6539\u53d8\u3002\u6362\u8a00\u4e4b\uff0c2008-09<\/span>\u5e74\u91d1\u878d\u5371\u673a\u548c\u7ecf\u6d4e\u8870\u9000\u7684\u5f71\u54cd\u4e0e\u4e00\u573a\u6218\u4e89\u7c7b\u4f3c\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n

\n\t\u9a6c\u91cc\u5170\u5927\u5b66(University of Maryland)<\/span>\u7684\u5361\u95e8•\u83b1\u56e0\u54c8\u7279(Carmen Reinhart)<\/span>\u6559\u6388\u8868\u793a\uff1a“‘\u8fd9\u6b21\u4e0d\u540c'<\/span>\u8fd9\u56db\u4e2a\u5b57\u9020\u6210\u7684\u8d22\u5bcc\u635f\u5931\uff0c\u6bd4\u5728\u67aa\u53e3\u4e0b\u88ab\u62a2\u8d70\u7684\u94b1\u8fd8\u8981\u591a\u3002”\u83b1\u56e0\u54c8\u7279\u6559\u6388\u66fe\u4e0e\u54c8\u4f5b\u5927\u5b66(Harvard University)<\/span>\u7684\u80af\u5c3c\u601d•\u7f57\u683c\u592b(Kenneth Rogoff)<\/span>\u6559\u6388\u5408\u4f5c\u7f16\u5199\u4e86\u8bb0\u8ff0\u5386\u6b21\u91d1\u878d\u7e41\u8363\u4e0e\u5371\u673a\u7684\u6743\u5a01\u6027\u53f2\u7c4d\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n

\n\t\u897f\u73ed\u7259\u7684\u5931\u4e1a\u7387\u5df2\u63a5\u8fd1\u9002\u9f84\u52b3\u52a8\u529b\u768420%<\/span>\uff0c\u9884\u7b97\u8d64\u5b57\u9884\u8ba1\u5c06\u8fbe\u56fd\u6c11\u6536\u5165\u768410%<\/span>\u3002\u8fd9\u53ea\u662f\u53bb\u5e74\u5371\u673a\u7206\u53d1\u524d“\u5bbd\u677e\u4fe1\u8d37\u63a8\u52a8\u589e\u957f”\u7684“\u6587\u5316\u9057\u4ea7”\u4e4b\u4e00\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n

\n\t\u5728\u7f8e\u56fd\u52a0\u5dde\u7684\u68d5\u6988\u8c37(Palmdale)<\/span>\u548c\u5170\u5361\u65af\u7279(Lancaster)<\/span>\u7b49\u5e02\uff0c\u7531\u4e8e\u6b62\u8d4e\u60c5\u51b5\u4e1d\u6beb\u672a\u5f97\u5230\u7f13\u89e3\uff0c\u6574\u8857\u6574\u5df7\u7684\u4f4f\u5b85\u4eba\u53bb\u697c\u7a7a\u3002\u4f5c\u4e3a\u7f8e\u56fd\u4eba\u53e3\u6700\u591a\u7684\u5dde\uff0c\u52a0\u5dde\u5168\u5dde\u7684\u5931\u4e1a\u7387\u5df2\u8d85\u8fc712%<\/span>\uff0c\u5dde\u9884\u7b97\u4e5f\u9677\u5165\u5371\u673a\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n

\n\t\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5b66\u754c\u4eba\u58eb\u66fe\u7ecf\u5982\u6b64\u64c5\u957f\u4e8e\u8bb0\u8ff0\u4e0a\u4e16\u7eaa80<\/span>\u5e74\u4ee3\u4e2d\u671f\u4ee5\u6765\u7684\u7ecf\u6d4e\u51b2\u51fb“\u5927\u7f13\u548c”(Great Moderation)<\/span>\uff0c\u4f46\u73b0\u5df2\u88ab\u8feb\u628a\u8fd9\u9879\u5de5\u4f5c\u653e\u5728\u4e00\u8fb9\u3002<\/span>\u5728\u5bf9\u5386\u53f2\u8fdb\u884c\u66f4\u6df1\u5165\u6316\u6398\u548c\u5e7f\u6cdb\u5206\u6790\u540e\uff0c\u4eba\u4eec\u5f97\u5230\u4e86\u76f8\u5173\u7684\u8bc1\u636e\u548c\u7ebf\u7d22\uff0c\u80fd\u591f\u9884\u6d4b\u8fd9\u6b21\u8870\u9000\u7559\u4e0b\u7684\u521b\u4f24\u53ef\u80fd\u4f1a\u6301\u7eed\u591a\u4e45\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n

\n\t\u6b63\u5728\u5f62\u6210\u7684\u5171\u8bc6\uff08\u81f3\u5c11\u5bf9\u53d1\u8fbe\u56fd\u5bb6\u6765\u8bf4\u5982\u6b64\uff09\u662f\uff1a\u8fd9\u4e9b\u521b\u4f24\u5c06\u662f\u4e25\u91cd\u800c\u6301\u4e45\u7684\u3002\u5728\u6700\u65b0\u4e00\u671f\u300a\u4e16\u754c\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5c55\u671b\u300b(World Economic Outlook)<\/span>\u4e2d\uff0c\u56fd\u9645\u8d27\u5e01\u57fa\u91d1\u7ec4\u7ec7(IMF)<\/span>\u8c03\u7814\u4e861970<\/span>\u5e74\u81f32002<\/span>\u5e74\u768488<\/span>\u6b21\u94f6\u884c\u4e1a\u5371\u673a\u3002\u7ed3\u679c\u53d1\u73b0\uff0c\u5e73\u5747\u6765\u8bf4\uff0c\u5728\u8870\u9000\u6210\u4e3a\u4eba\u4eec\u7684\u56de\u5fc6\u540e\uff0c\u5404\u56fd\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5e76\u4e0d\u80fd\u6536\u590d\u5168\u90e8“\u5931\u5730”\u3002IMF<\/span>\u5728\u5176\u6570\u636e\u5e93\u4e2d\u53d1\u73b0\uff0c\u5728\u5371\u673a\u7206\u53d17<\/span>\u5e74\u540e\uff0c\u76f8\u6bd4\u5371\u673a\u524d\u7684\u589e\u957f\u8f68\u8ff9\uff0c\u4ea7\u51fa\u4f1a\u4e0b\u8dcc10%<\/span>\u3002\u867d\u7136\u7ecf\u6d4e\u589e\u957f\u7387\u901a\u5e38\u4f1a\u56de\u5347\u81f3\u5371\u673a\u524d\u7684\u6c34\u5e73\uff0c\u4f46\u4ea7\u51fa\u635f\u5931\u4f3c\u4e4e\u662f\u6c38\u4e45\u6027\u7684\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n

\n\t\u8fd9\u4e2a\u5e73\u5747\u7ed3\u679c\u51b3\u975e\u5747\u5300\u5206\u5e03\uff0c\u4f46\u6301\u4e45\u7684\u4ea7\u51fa\u635f\u5931\u4ecd\u5177\u6709\u7edf\u8ba1\u5b66\u610f\u4e49\u3002\u5728IMF<\/span>\u8c03\u7814\u76849<\/span>\u6210\u94f6\u884c\u4e1a\u5371\u673a\u4e2d\uff0c\u4ea7\u51fa\u635f\u5931\u4e3a7%<\/span>\u81f313%<\/span>\u4e0d\u7b49\u3002IMF<\/span>\u53d1\u73b0\uff0c\u5728\u5371\u673a\u7206\u53d17<\/span>\u5e74\u540e\uff0c\u67093<\/span>\u79cd\u72ec\u7acb\u4f46\u6548\u5e94\u91cf\u76f8\u540c\u7684\u56e0\u7d20\uff0c\u503e\u5411\u4e8e\u963b\u6b62\u7ecf\u6d4e\u53cd\u5f39\u81f3\u5371\u673a\u524d\u7684\u8d8b\u52bf\u589e\u957f\u7387\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n

\n\t\u9996\u5148\uff0c\u5c31\u4e1a\u7387\u4f1a\u6301\u7eed\u504f\u4f4e\u3002\u5728\u5371\u673a\u524d\u7684\u7e41\u8363\u671f\u91cc\uff0c\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5404\u90e8\u95e8\uff08\u4f8b\u5982\u7f8e\u56fd\u7684\u4f4f\u5b85\u5efa\u7b51\u4e1a\uff09\u5438\u7eb3\u4e86\u5927\u91cf\u52b3\u52a8\u529b\uff0c\u5371\u673a\u4e4b\u540e\u8fd9\u79cd\u9700\u6c42\u5df2\u4e0d\u590d\u5b58\u5728\u3002\u5728\u5404\u90e8\u95e8\u4e4b\u95f4\u91cd\u65b0\u914d\u7f6e\u52b3\u52a8\u529b\u9700\u8981\u65f6\u95f4\u3002\u6b64\u5916\uff0c\u5982\u679c\u5931\u4e1a\u7387\u521d\u671f\u98d9\u5347\u540e\u4e00\u76f4\u5c45\u9ad8\u4e0d\u4e0b\uff0c\u5931\u4e1a\u96c7\u5458\u7684\u6280\u80fd\u548c\u4eba\u8109\u5c31\u4f1a\u53d7\u635f\uff0c\u800c\u4e14\u4f1a\u4e27\u5931\u5de5\u4f5c\u70ed\u60c5\u3002\u8fd9\u4e9b\u635f\u5931\u90fd\u662f\u6c38\u4e45\u6027\u7684\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n

\n\t\u5176\u6b21\uff0c\u8d44\u672c\u5b58\u91cf\u4f1a\u906d\u53d7\u6c38\u4e45\u6027\u6253\u51fb\u3002\u6709\u4e9b\u5382\u623f\u548c\u8bbe\u5907\u8fc7\u65e9\u62a5\u5e9f\uff0c\u800c\u5176\u5b83\u516c\u53f8\u96be\u4ee5\u6295\u8d44\u4e8e\u53ef\u884c\u7684\u9879\u76ee\uff0c\u56e0\u4e3a\u94f6\u884c\u4e3a\u5de9\u56fa\u81ea\u8eab\u8d22\u52a1\u72b6\u51b5\u800c\u6536\u7d27\u4e86\u4fe1\u8d37\u3002<\/span>\u7b2c\u4e09\uff0c\u52b3\u52a8\u529b\u548c\u8d44\u672c\u7684\u7efc\u5408\u4ea7\u51fa\u5f80\u5f80\u4f4e\u4e8e\u5371\u673a\u524d\u7684\u6c34\u5e73\u3002\u8fd9\u6216\u8bb8\u662f\u56e0\u4e3a\u521b\u65b0\u578b\u516c\u53f8\u65e0\u6cd5\u7b79\u96c6\u5230\u8d44\u672c\uff0c\u6216\u8005\u5982IMF<\/span>\u6240\u8bf4\uff1a“\u751f\u4ea7\u7387\u8fd8\u53ef\u80fd\u56e0\u521b\u65b0\u51cf\u5c11\u800c\u53d7\u635f\uff0c\u56e0\u4e3a\u8870\u9000\u65f6\u671f\u7684\u7814\u53d1\u652f\u51fa\u5f80\u5f80\u4f1a\u906d\u5230\u524a\u51cf\u3002”<\/span><\/p>\n

\n\t\u5bf9\u90a3\u4e9b\u5728\u5371\u673a\u524d\u6295\u8d44\u7387\u8f83\u9ad8\u7684\u56fd\u5bb6\u6765\u8bf4\uff0c\u8fd9\u4e9b\u56e0\u7d20\u7684\u5f71\u54cd\u5c24\u4e3a\u91cd\u8981\u3002<\/span>\u5728\u5bf9\u8fc7\u53bb800<\/span>\u5e74\u5386\u6b21\u91d1\u878d\u5371\u673a\u8fdb\u884c\u5206\u6790\u540e\uff0c\u7f57\u683c\u592b\u6559\u6388\u5728\u7f8e\u56fd\u5e7f\u64ad\u7535\u53f0\u4e0a\u8868\u793a\uff1a“\u8fd9\u4e9b\u4e8b\u4ef6\u7ed9\u4eba\u9020\u6210\u4e86\u6781\u5927\u7684\u521b\u4f24\u3002\u5b83\u4eec\u7684\u653f\u6cbb\u540e\u679c\u80fd\u6301\u7eed\u6570\u5341\u5e74\uff0c\u5bf9\u7ecf\u6d4e\u7ed3\u6784\u4e5f\u4ea7\u751f\u4e86\u6df1\u8fdc\u7684\u5f71\u54cd\u3002\u8fd9\u5c06\u5f71\u54cd\u7ecf\u5386\u8fc7\u5371\u673a\u7684\u6574\u6574\u4e00\u4ee3\u4eba\u3002”<\/span><\/p>\n

\n\t\u7ecf\u5408\u7ec4\u7ec7(OECD)<\/span>\u6700\u8fd1\u51fa\u7248\u7684\u300a\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5c55\u671b\u300b(Economic Outlook)<\/span>\u4e2d\u7684\u4e00\u7bc7\u7814\u7a76\u62a5\u544a\uff0c\u7a81\u663e\u5bf9\u4ee5\u5f80\u94f6\u884c\u4e1a\u5371\u673a\u7684\u7814\u7a76\u7684\u4e25\u8083\u8bba\u8c03\u3002<\/span>\u5c3d\u7ba1\u8be5\u62a5\u544a\u4f30\u8ba1\uff0c\u5371\u673a\u5bf9\u6f5c\u5728\u4ea7\u51fa\u7684\u6700\u521d\u5f71\u54cd\u4ec5\u67093.5%<\/span>\uff0c\u4f46\u5bcc\u56fd\u7ecf\u6d4e\u589e\u901f“\u5728\u4e2d\u671f\u5185\uff0c\u9884\u8ba1\u4ecd\u5c06\u4ece\u5371\u673a\u524d\u4e03\u5e742%<\/span>\u81f32.25%<\/span>\u7684\u5e74\u5747\u6c34\u5e73\uff0c\u964d\u81f31.75%<\/span>\u5de6\u53f3\uff0c\u8fd9\u4e3b\u8981\u53cd\u6620\u4e86\u4eba\u53e3\u8001\u9f84\u5316\u5bf9\u6f5c\u5728\u5c31\u4e1a\u589e\u957f\u7684\u5f71\u54cd”\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n

\n\t\u5e76\u975e\u6240\u6709\u7684\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5b66\u5bb6\u90fd\u786e\u4fe1\uff0c\u521b\u4f24\u662f\u4e0d\u53ef\u907f\u514d\u7684\u3002\u53f2\u8482\u82ac•\u5207\u51ef\u8482(Stephen Cecchetti)<\/span>\u3001\u739b\u4e3d\u6602•\u79d1\u52d2(Marion Kohler)<\/span>\u548c\u514b\u91cc\u65af\u8482\u5b89•\u5384\u73c0(Christian Upper)<\/span>\u501f\u7528\u7f57\u683c\u592b\u4e0e\u83b1\u56e0\u54c8\u7279\u5408\u8457\u7684\u4e66\u540d\u300a\u8fd9\u6b21\u4e0d\u540c\u300b(This time is different)<\/span>\uff0c\u5728VoxEU.org<\/span>\u4e0a\u8fa9\u79f0\uff0c\u672c\u8f6e\u5371\u673a\u4e0e\u5176\u4ed6\u4eba\u7814\u7a76\u7684\u5371\u673a\u51e0\u4e4e\u6beb\u65e0\u76f8\u540c\u4e4b\u5904\u3002“\u5f53\u524d\u5371\u673a\u4e0e\u6211\u4eec\u6570\u636e\u5e93\u4e2d\u4efb\u4f55\u4e00\u6b21\u5371\u673a\u7684\u76f8\u540c\u4e4b\u5904\uff0c\u8981\u5c11\u4e8e\u4e0a\u4e16\u7eaa90<\/span>\u5e74\u4ee3\u65e5\u672c\u91d1\u878d\u5371\u673a\u4e0e1998<\/span>\u5e74\u5384\u74dc\u591a\u5c14\u7ecf\u5386\u7684\u5371\u673a\u3001\u6216\u8005\u4e0e\u4fdd\u52a0\u5229\u4e9a\u5728\u8f6c\u578b\u671f\u95f4\u906d\u9047\u7684\u5371\u673a\u7684\u76f8\u540c\u70b9\uff0c”\u4ed6\u4eec\u8fd9\u6837\u5199\u9053\uff0c\u5e76\u9884\u6d4b\uff0c\u672c\u8f6e\u8870\u9000\u7684\u7279\u5b9a\u60c5\u51b5\u663e\u793a\uff0c\u4ea7\u51fa\u5c06\u57282010<\/span>\u5e74\u4e0b\u534a\u5e74\u6062\u590d\u5230\u5371\u673a\u524d\u7684\u6c34\u5e73\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n

\n\t\u8fd9\u5c06\u610f\u5473\u7740\uff0c\u53d1\u8fbe\u7ecf\u6d4e\u4f53\u7684\u7ecf\u6d4e\u590d\u82cf\u8f83\u9884\u671f\u8981\u5feb\u8bb8\u591a\u3002\u4f46\u5373\u4fbf\u5982\u6b64\uff0c\u4ed6\u4eec\u5e76\u4e0d\u8ba4\u4e3a\u521b\u4f24\u5c06\u5f88\u5feb\u6108\u5408\u3002\u4ed6\u4eec\u8868\u793a\uff1a“\u65e0\u8bba\u5371\u673a\u56fd\u5bb6\u4ea7\u51fa\u6062\u590d\u81f3\u5371\u673a\u524d\u6c34\u5e73\u7684\u901f\u5ea6\u662f\u6162\u8fd8\u662f\u5feb\uff0c\u4ecd\u6709\u53ef\u80fd\u7559\u4e0b\u957f\u4e45\u7684\u4f24\u75db\u3002”<\/span> <\/span><\/strong> <\/span><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

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