\n\t\u4e2d\u56fd\u5c062012\u5e74\u7ecf\u6d4e\u6210\u957f\u76ee\u6807\u4ece8.0%\u8c03\u964d\u81f37.5%\uff0c\u4e3a1990\u5e74\u4ee3\u4ee5\u6765\u6700\u4f4e\u6c34\u5e73\uff0c\u5176\u589e\u5e45\u4ec5\u52c9\u5f3a\u8db3\u4ee5\u7ef4\u6301\u5e9e\u5927\u52b3\u52a8\u529b\u83b7\u5f97\u5c31\u4e1a\u673a\u4f1a\u3002\u5df4\u897f\u5728\u53bb\u5e74\u8eb2\u8fc7\u8870\u9000\u540e\uff0c\u76ee\u524d\u6b63\u8270\u96be\u6062\u590d\u7ecf\u6d4e\u589e\u957f\u3002\u5728\u6b27\u6d32\uff0c\u5e0c\u814a\u6210\u529f\u8fbe\u6210\u503a\u52a1\u4e92\u6362\u534f\u8bae\uff0c\u4e3a\u83b7\u5f97\u7b2c\u4e8c\u8f6e\u63f4\u52a9\u8d44\u91d1\u626b\u5e73\u9053\u8def\u3002\u5373\u4fbf\u6b27\u6d32\u7684\u6700\u5927\u7ecf\u6d4e\u4f53\u5fb7\u56fd\u4e5f\u65e0\u6cd5\u5e78\u514d\uff0c\u800c\u65e5\u672c\u5c1a\u672a\u6446\u8131\u4e00\u5e74\u524d\u7684\u9707\u707e\u9634\u5f71\u5b9e\u73b0\u590d\u82cf\u3002<\/p>\n
\n\t\u8fd9\u4e9b\u56e0\u7d20\u4fc3\u4f7f\u5168\u7403\u6700\u5927\u7ecf\u6d4e\u4f53\u7f8e\u56fd\u6210\u4e3a\u5168\u7403\u6210\u957f\u7684\u4e3b\u8981\u5f15\u64ce\uff0c\u8ba9\u7f8e\u56fd\u6d88\u8d39\u8005\u627f\u62c5\u8d77\u8fd9\u4e00\u91cd\u4efb\u3002<\/p>\n
\n\t\u4eca\u5e741 \u6708\u7f8e\u56fd\u96f6\u552e\u9500\u552e\u6500\u53470.4%\uff0c2 \u6708\u5219\u662f\u6210\u957f1.1%\uff0c\u582a\u79f0\u662f\u8fd15 \u4e2a\u6708\u4ee5\u6765\u5355\u6708\u6210\u957f\u6700\u9ad8\uff0c\u8fd9\u4e9b\u6570\u636e\u4f3c\u4e4e\u663e\u793a\u7f8e\u56fd\u6d88\u8d39\u4fe1\u5fc3\u56de\u7b3c\uff0c\u4f46\u4ecd\u4f4e\u4e8e\u7f8e\u56fd\u623f\u5e02\u6ce1\u6cab\u524d\u7684\u6c34\u51c6\u3002<\/p>\n
\n\t\u300a\u5f6d\u535a\u793e\u300b\u4e13\u680f\u4f5c\u5bb6\u66a8\u7545\u9500\u4e66\u4f5c\u8005Gary Shilling \u60b2\u89c2\u8ba4\u4e3a\u8fd1\u6708\u7684\u6d88\u8d39\u589e\u957f\u4e0d\u4f1a\u6301\u7eed\u592a\u4e45\uff0c\u56e0\u4e3a\u4ee5\u4e2a\u4eba\u6240\u5f97\u6210\u957f\u6301\u7eed\u8d70\u7f13\u6765\u770b\uff0c\u4e0d\u5c11\u6d88\u8d39\u8005\u5e94\u8be5\u662f\u5728\u5403\u8001\u672c\u652f\u5e94\u5f00\u9500\uff1b\u800c\u4e14\u8fd1\u6708\u7f8e\u56fd\u65b0\u589e\u804c\u7f3a\u8868\u73b0\u4e0d\u5982\u4eba\u610f\uff0c\u96be\u7eed\u652f\u6491\u5f80\u540e\u6d88\u8d39\u529b\u9053\u3002<\/p>\n
\n\t\u53e6\u5916\u5176\u5b83\u5916\u754c\u8f83\u5c11\u5173\u5207\u5230\u7684\u6570\u636e\u5982\u81ea\u613f\u6027\u79bb\u804c\u4eba\u6570\u5927\u51cf\uff0c\u8db3\u73b0\u6c42\u804c\u8005\u5bf9\u5c31\u4e1a\u5e02\u573a\u4fe1\u5fc3\u4e0d\u8db3\uff0c\u4e0d\u6562\u8d38\u7136\u79bb\u804c\u518d\u53bb\u627e\u5de5\u4f5c\u3002\u4e2a\u4eba\u6d88\u8d39\u652f\u51fa\u82e5\u8ba1\u5165\u7269\u4ef7\u6c34\u51c6\u6765\u770b\uff0c\u4e5f\u662f\u4f4e\u4e8e\u4e0a\u5e74\u540c\u671f\uff0c\u56e0\u6b64\uff0c\u672a\u6765\u51e0\u4e2a\u6708\u7f8e\u56fd\u6d88\u8d39\u8005\u652f\u51fa\u65e0\u7591\u4f1a\u51cf\u5c11\u3002<\/p>\n
\n\t\u6c11\u95f4\u6d88\u8d39\u529b\u9053\u51cf\uff0c\u623f\u5e02\u6d3b\u52a8\u4e5f\u4f1a\u6301\u7eed\u8870\u9000\u3002Shilling \u8ba4\u4e3a\u623f\u5c4b\u79df\u8d41\u6bd4\u7387\u5347\u9ad8\uff0c\u8fd9\u4e0e\u73b0\u6709\u653e\u6b3e\u89c4\u5b9a\u4e25\u683c\u4e0d\u65e0\u5173\u7cfb\uff0c\u5f53\u7136\uff0c\u5bf9\u5c31\u4e1a\u5e02\u573a\u6ca1\u6709\u4fe1\u5fc3\u3001\u62c5\u5fc3\u4f1a\u6210\u4e3a\u4e0b\u4e00\u4e2a\u88ab\u88c1\u5458\u7684\u76ee\u6807\u3001\u770b\u574f\u623f\u4ef7\u7b49\u5fc3\u6001\uff0c\u53ea\u4f1a\u8ba9\u623f\u5e02\u9700\u6c42\u6709\u51cf\u65e0\u589e\u3002<\/p>\n
\n\tShilling \u6307\u7f8e\u56fd\u76ee\u524d\u9980\u5c4b\u7ea6\u6709200 \u4e07\u5957\uff0c\u9ad8\u4e8e\u6b63\u5e38\u6c34\u51c6\u5b58\u8d27\u91cf\u3002\u7136\u800c\u4e0d\u662f\u6240\u6709\u7684\u4f59\u5c4b\u90fd\u4f1a\u62ff\u5230\u5e02\u573a\u4e0a\u51fa\u552e\uff0c\u6709\u4e9b\u5c4b\u4e3b\u5728\u7b49\u5f85\u623f\u4ef7\u4e0a\u626c\u540e\u518d\u628a\u623f\u5c4b\u62ff\u51fa\u6765\u5356\uff0c\u6240\u4ee5\u7f8e\u56fd\u4f59\u5c4b\u91cf\u6709\u53ef\u80fd\u88ab\u4f4e\u4f30\u3002\u5e02\u573a\u4e5f\u9700\u8981\u4e00\u6bb5\u5f88\u957f\u7684\u65f6\u95f4\u6765\u6d88\u5316\u6240\u6709\u7684\u4f59\u5c4b\u3002<\/p>\n
\n\t\u56fd\u5185\u6d88\u8d39\u4fe1\u5fc3\u840e\u7f29\uff0c\u5df2\u7ecf\u662f\u574f\u6d88\u606f\uff0c\u53ef\u662f\u6cb9\u4ef7\u4e5f\u6765\u51d1\u70ed\u95f9\u3002\u4f46Shilling \u8ba4\u4e3a\uff0c\u6cb9\u4ef7\u4e0d\u4f1a\u504f\u79bb\u6b63\u5e38\u6c34\u51c6\u592a\u591a\uff0c\u6545\u5bf9\u6d88\u8d39\u8005\u5b9e\u8d28\u8d2d\u4e70\u529b\u5f71\u54cd\u7a0b\u5ea6\u8f83\u5c11\u3002\u53cd\u5012\u662f\u5404\u5dde\u4e0e\u5730\u65b9\u653f\u5e9c\u56e0\u62c5\u5fc3\u5165\u4e0d\u6577\u51fa\u4f1a\u4e0d\u65ad\u5927\u780d\u652f\u51fa\uff0c\u632b\u6c11\u4f17\u6d88\u8d39\u4fe1\u5fc3\u3002<\/p>\n
\n\tShilling \u63d0\u5230\u7f8e\u56fd\u9762\u4e34\u7684\u5931\u4e1a\u95ee\u9898\u4e0d\u5b8c\u5168\u662f\u666f\u6c14\u8d70\u7f13\u6240\u81f4\uff0c\u7ed3\u6784\u6027\u5931\u4e1a\u662f\u4e00\u5927\u95ee\u9898\u3002\u5c31Shilling \u89c2\u5bdf\uff0c\u8bb8\u591a\u7f8e\u56fd\u96c7\u4e3b\u6709\u611f\u4e8e\u56fd\u5185\u6280\u672f\u6027\u4eba\u624d\u77ed\u7f3a\uff0c\u90e8\u4efd\u516c\u53f8\u8f6c\u5411\u6d77\u5916\u6210\u7acb\u7814\u53d1\u4e2d\u5fc3\uff0c\u8058\u8bf7\u5f53\u5730\u4eba\u624d\u4e3a\u5176\u6548\u529b\u3002\u76ee\u524d\u7f8e\u56fd\u4f4e\u9636\u52b3\u52a8\u529b\u8fc7\u5269\uff0c\u5982\u5efa\u7b51\u5de5\u4eba\u3001\u6c34\u7535\u6280\u5de5\u7b49\uff0c\u800c\u4ed6\u4eec\u4e5f\u5f88\u96be\u518d\u8f6c\u8bad\u6210\u4e3a\u76ee\u524d\u56fd\u5185\u6700\u9700\u8981\u7684\u8f6f\u4f53\u5de5\u7a0b\u5e08\uff0c\u4e5f\u56e0\u6b64\u5931\u4e1a\u7387\u5f88\u96be\u5927\u5e45\u964d\u4f4e\u3002<\/p>\n
\n\t\u8fd1\u51e0\u5e74\u4e1a\u8005\u5728\u88c1\u5458\u4e4b\u540e\uff0c\u516c\u53f8\u5bf9\u65b0\u96c7\u5458\u7684\u8981\u6c42\u53d8\u9ad8\uff0c\u8bb8\u591a\u4f01\u4e1a\u8868\u660e\u9700\u8981\u6280\u672f\u6216\u77e5\u8bc6\u5bc6\u96c6\u4eba\u624d\uff1b\u4ec5\u6709\u56fd\u9ad8\u4e2d\u5b66\u5386\u52b3\u5de5\u5c31\u4e1a\u673a\u4f1a\u8fdc\u4f4e\u4e8e\u5927\u5b66\u5b66\u5386\u6216\u4ee5\u4e0a\u8005\uff0c\u52b3\u52a8\u9700\u6c42\u6613\u53d7\u666f\u6c14\u6ce2\u52a8\uff0c\u653f\u5e9c\u5e94\u8f85\u5bfc\u5176\u53e6\u89c5\u804c\u6daf\u3002<\/p>\n
\n\t\u7f8e\u56fd\u5c31\u4e1a\u5e02\u573a\u6709\u4e00\u534a\u7684\u804c\u7f3a\u6765\u81ea\u5c0f\u578b\u4f01\u4e1a\uff0c\u7136\u800c\u6839\u636e\u4e00\u9879\u8c03\u67e5\uff0c\u7531\u4e8e\u9500\u552e\u75b2\u5f31\u4e0d\u632f\uff0c\u591a\u6570\u7f8e\u56fd\u5c0f\u578b\u4f01\u4e1a\u4e3b\u8868\u793a\u5728\u672a\u67653 \u4e2a\u6708\u516c\u53f8\u4e0d\u6253\u7b97\u53ec\u52df\u65b0\u4eba\uff0c\u63a7\u5236\u52b3\u52a8\u6210\u672c\u4e3a\u9996\u8981\u8003\u91cf\u3002<\/p>\n
\n\t\u7f8e\u56fd\u80a1\u5e02\u8fd1\u5e74\u5f97\u529b\u4e8e\u7b2c\u4e00\u4e0e\u7b2c\u4e8c\u8f6e\u91cf\u5316\u5bbd\u677e\u7684\u5e2e\u52a9\u800c\u98d9\u5347\uff0c\u4f46\u82e5\u91cf\u5316\u5bbd\u677e\u4e0d\u518d\uff0c\u90a3\u4e48\u540e\u679c\u5c31\u662f\u80a1\u5e02\u5927\u8dcc\u3002\u5916\u754c\u731c\u6d4b\uff0c\u7f8e\u56fd11 \u6708\u5927\u9009\u5728\u5373\uff0c\u82e5\u5931\u4e1a\u7387\u6500\u5347\u52a0\u4e0a\u7ecf\u6d4e\u6570\u636e\u4e0d\u7406\u60f3\uff0c\u5e94\u4f1a\u4fc3\u4f7f\u56fd\u4f1a\u8bae\u5458\u4eec\u8d76\u7d27\u901a\u8fc7\u632f\u5174\u63aa\u65bd\uff0c\u50cf\u662f\u6240\u5f97\u7a0e\u51cf\u514d\u5ef6\u957f\u7b49\uff0c\u4e0d\u8ba9\u7ade\u4e89\u5bf9\u624b\u6709\u6279\u8bc4\u7684\u673a\u4f1a\u3002\u6216\u8005\u81f3\u5c11\uff0c\u5728\u65b0\u56fd\u4f1a\u4e8e\u660e\u5e741 \u6708\u96c6\u4f1a\u65f6\uff0c\u53ef\u671b\u63a8\u51fa\u65b0\u7684\u51cf\u7a0e\u6cd5\u6848\u3002<\/p>\n
\n\t\u8fd1\u5e74\u7f8e\u80a1\u6da8\u52bf\u731b\u70c8\uff0c\u81f3\u4eca\u5e743\u6708\u7f8e\u80a1\u725b\u5e02\u51b2\u950b\u9677\u9635\u5df2\u6ee1\u4e09\u5e74\uff0cS&P 500 \u4e0e\u7eb3\u65af\u8fbe\u514b\u7684\u80a1\u4ef7\u4ece2009 \u5e74\u8c37\u5e95\u4ee5\u6765\u4e09\u5e74\u95f4\u6da8\u5e45\u5df2\u8d85\u8fc7\u4e8c\u500d\uff0c\u9053\u743c\u5e73\u5747\u5de5\u4e1a\u6307\u6570\u7b2c\u4e00\u5b63\u8868\u73b0\u751a\u81f3\u662f1998 \u5e74\u4ee5\u6765\u6700\u597d\u7684\u4e00\u5b63\u3002\u4f46\u5c31\u57284 \u6708\u51fa\u7089\u7684\u8054\u51c6\u4f1a\u4f1a\u8bae\u8bb0\u5f55\u4e2d\u63ed\u793a\uff0c\u4e3b\u5e2d\u67cf\u5357\u514b\u8ba4\u4e3a\u7b2c\u4e09\u8f6e\u5bbd\u677e\u663e\u65e0\u5fc5\u8981\u7684\u6697\u793a\u4e00\u51fa\uff0c\u80a1\u5e02\u4fbf\u4e0d\u65ad\u4e0b\u8dcc\u3002<\/p>\n
\n\tShilling \u6307\u7f8e\u56fd\u76ee\u524d\u603b\u4f53\u7ecf\u6d4e\u4ece\u6d88\u8d39\u3001\u5c31\u4e1a\u3001\u623f\u5e02\u7b49\u6307\u6807\u6765\u770b\uff0c\u90fd\u4e0d\u7b97\u7ecf\u6d4e\u7a33\u5b9a\u590d\u7526\uff0c\u80a1\u5e02\u7684\u70ed\u4e0d\u662f\u771f\u7684\u70ed\uff0c\u800c\u662f\u5efa\u7acb\u5728\u8106\u5f31\u4fe1\u5fc3\u57fa\u7840\u4e0a\u3002\u4eca\u5929\u53ea\u8981\u80a1\u5e02\u6295\u8d44\u4eba\u76f8\u4fe1\u592e\u884c\u91c7\u53d6\u8d27\u5e01\u5bbd\u677e\u653f\u7b56\uff0c\u80a1\u5e02\u5c31\u4f1a\u6da8\uff1b\u82e5\u67cf\u5357\u514b\u505a\u76f8\u53cd\u6697\u793a\uff0c\u80a1\u5e02\u5c31\u8dcc\u3002<\/p>\n
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