{"id":6325,"date":"2014-01-22T21:39:17","date_gmt":"2014-01-22T21:39:17","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.fortunetimes.sg\/cn\/?p=6325"},"modified":"2014-01-22T21:39:17","modified_gmt":"2014-01-22T21:39:17","slug":"E7BE8EE59BBDE5B08FE59E8BE882A120E68896E9AD85E58A9BE697A0E99990EFBC9F","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/az.c.adneti.net\/cn\/?p=6325","title":{"rendered":"\u7f8e\u56fd\u5c0f\u578b\u80a1 \u6216\u9b45\u529b\u65e0\u9650\uff1f"},"content":{"rendered":"

\n\t <\/p>\n

\n\t\u7f8e\u56fd\u5e02\u573a\u7684\u80a1\u7968\uff0c\u7ecf\u5e38\u4ee5\u6807\u666e500\u6216\u9053\u743c\u65af\u6307\u6570\u4e3a\u4e2d\u5fc3\u3002\u7136\u800c\uff0c\u7f8e\u56fd\u5e02\u573a\u4e0a\u8fd8\u6709\u53e6\u5916\u4e00\u79cd\u7f8e\u56fd\u5c0f\u578b\u80a1\u7684\u52a8\u6001\u6307\u6807——\u7f57\u7d20\uff08Russell\uff092000\u6307\u6570\u3002\u5f53\u6295\u8d44\u73af\u5883\u53d8\u5f97\u52a8\u8361\uff0c\u90a3\u4e9b\u6709\u56fd\u9645\u66dd\u5149\u7684\u5927\u4e2d\u578b\u80a1\u53d7\u5230\u6253\u51fb\uff0c\u5c0f\u578b\u80a1\u7684\u6295\u8d44\u673a\u4f1a\u5219\u53d8\u5f97\u66f4\u52a0\u7a81\u51fa\u3002\u90a3\u4e48\uff0c\u6295\u8d44\u5c0f\u578b\u80a1\u7684\u7406\u7531\u662f\u4ec0\u4e48\uff1f\u4e3a\u4ec0\u4e48\u7f8e\u56fd\u57fa\u91d1\u7ecf\u7406\u4eba\u73b0\u5728\u7684\u70ed\u60c5\u8fd9\u4e48\u9ad8\uff1f<\/strong><\/p>\n

\n\t\u5728\u7f8e\u56fd\uff0c\u5c0f\u578b\u80a1(small-caps)\u901a\u5e38\u662f\u6307\u5e02\u503c(market cap)\u4ecb\u4e8e3\u4ebf\u548c20\u4ebf\u7f8e\u5143\u4e4b\u95f4\u7684\u80a1\u7968\u3002\u76f8\u5bf9\u90a3\u4e9b\u4e2d\u578b\u80a1\uff0c\u5b83\u4eec\u5728\u56fd\u9645\u5e02\u573a\u7684\u66dd\u5149\u7387\u76f8\u5bf9\u8f83\u4f4e\uff0c\u4e14\u4e3b\u8981\u96c6\u4e2d\u5728\u7f8e\u56fd\u56fd\u5185\u5e02\u573a\u3002Credit Suisse\u7684\u7814\u7a76\u62a5\u544a\u663e\u793a\uff0c\u7ea619%\u7684\u5c0f\u578b\u80a1\u6536\u5165\u6765\u81ea\u56fd\u9645\u66dd\u5149\uff0c\u800c\u5927\u578b\u80a1\u5219\u4e3a32%\u3002\u53e6\u4e00\u4e2a\u503c\u5f97\u6ce8\u610f\u7684\u662f\uff0c\u7f57\u7d202000\u6307\u6570\u80a1\u7968\u4e2d\uff0c\u670956%\u7684\u80a1\u7968\u4ee5\u56fd\u5185\u4e3a\u4e3b\uff0c\u8fd9\u53ef\u80fd\u662f\u7531\u4e8e\u6295\u8d44\u8005\u9009\u62e9\u907f\u9669\u3002<\/p>\n

\n\t\u622a\u81f37\u670824\u65e5\uff0c\u5c0f\u578b\u80a1\u4eca\u5e74\u4e3a\u6b62\u6536\u76ca\u7387\u5df2\u8fbe8.53%\uff0c\u800c\u4e2d\u578b\u80a1\u5219\u4e3a7.93%\u3002\u81ea\u4ece2008\u91d1\u878d\u98ce\u66b4\u4ee5\u6765\u76f4\u5230\u4eca\u5e744\u6708\uff0c\u7f57\u7d202000\u7684\u5c0f\u578b\u80a1\u8868\u73b0\u751a\u81f3\u6bd4\u6807\u666e500 (S&P 500)\u4e2d\u578b\u80a1\u8fd8\u8981\u51fa\u8272\u3002<\/p>\n

\n\t\u4eca\u5e747\u6708\u7684\u5e02\u573a\u76d8\u6574(market correction)\u63a8\u9ad8\u7f57\u7d202000\u6307\u6570\u8fbe17%\uff0c\u800c\u6807\u666e500\u5374\u5728\u540c\u671f\u4e0b\u6ed112%\u3002\u5728\u4e00\u4efd\u5ba2\u6237\u7814\u7a76\u62a5\u544a\u91cc\uff0c\u745e\u94f6\u7684\u7f8e\u56fd\u4e2d\u5c0f\u578b\u80a1\u7968\u5206\u6790\u5e08Lori Calvasina \u8868\u793a\uff0c\u5c0f\u578b\u80a1\u53ef\u80fd\u80fd\u627f\u53d7\u538b\u529b\uff0c\u5c24\u5176\u662f\u5728\u52a8\u8361\u65f6\u671f\u3002\u4f46\u662f\u5386\u53f2\u6570\u636e\u663e\u793a\uff0c\u5c0f\u578b\u80a1\u5728\u4f4e\u8c37\u65f6\u4f1a\u589e\u503c\uff0c\u53ea\u8981\u501f\u4ee5\u65f6\u65e5\uff0c\u673a\u4f1a\u9884\u8ba1\u66f4\u591a\uff08\u4f18\u8d28EPS\u589e\u957f\uff0c\u826f\u597d\u8868\u73b0\uff0c\u4f4e\u8986\u76d6\u9762\uff09\u3002<\/p>\n

\n\t\u4e3a\u4f55\u5c0f\u578b\u80a1\u5177\u6709\u5982\u6b64\u5438\u5f15\u529b\uff1f\u9996\u5148\uff0c\u5c0f\u516c\u53f8\u901a\u5e38\u8f83\u7075\u6d3b\uff0c\u6210\u957f\u6f5c\u529b\u4f1a\u8d85\u8fc7\u90a3\u4e9b\u884c\u4e1a\u5de8\u5934\u3002\u8fd9\u4e5f\u4f7f\u5f97\u90a3\u4e9b\u5c0f\u516c\u53f8\u80fd\u6293\u4f4f\u5e02\u573a\u673a\u4f1a\u3002\u7531\u4e8e\u5c0f\u516c\u53f8\u5f88\u5c11\u88ab\u5206\u6790\u5e08\u6ce8\u610f\uff0c\u56e0\u6b64\u4ef7\u683c\u548c\u57fa\u672c\u9762\u4e4b\u95f4\u5c31\u5b58\u5728\u4e00\u4e2a\u5dee\u8ddd\u3002\u8fd9\u4e5f\u8ba9\u6295\u8d44\u8005\u80fd\u8d2d\u4e70\u90a3\u4e9b\u5feb\u901f\u6210\u957f\u7684\u5c0f\u516c\u53f8\uff0c\u7136\u800c\u5927\u7684\u673a\u6784\u6295\u8d44\u8005\u662f\u5f88\u96be\u505a\u5230\u7684\uff0c\u56e0\u4e3a\u4ed6\u4eec\u5fc5\u987b\u6709\u4e00\u5957\u5f88\u4e25\u8c28\u7684\u5206\u6790\u7a0b\u5e8f\u53ca\u8bba\u636e\u6765\u652f\u6301\u4e3a\u4ec0\u4e48\u8981\u6295\u8d44\u5c0f\u578b\u80a1\u3002<\/p>\n

\n\t\u6295\u8d44\u5c0f\u578b\u80a1\uff0c\u901a\u5e38\u6709\u4e24\u79cd\u7b56\u7565\uff1a\u5c0f\u578b\u80a1\u7684\u6210\u957f\u548c\u5c0f\u578b\u80a1\u7684\u4ef7\u503c\u3002<\/p>\n

\n\t\u524d\u8005\uff0c\u662f\u6295\u8d44\u5728\u90a3\u4e9b\u663e\u793a\u9ad8\u6210\u957f\u6f5c\u529b\u7684\u516c\u53f8\uff0c\u751a\u81f3\u4ed6\u4eec\u7684\u4ef7\u683c\u53ef\u80fd\u770b\u8d77\u6765\u6bd4\u8f83\u9ad8\uff0c\u6bd4\u5982\uff0c\u9ad8P\/E,\u6216\u5e02\u8d26\u7387(P\/B)\u3002\u540e\u8005\uff0c\u5219\u662f\u6295\u8d44\u88ab\u4f4e\u4f30(underpriced)\u7684\u80a1\u7968\u3002\u4ef7\u503c\u6295\u8d44\u7684\u91cd\u70b9——\u662f\u4ee5\u4f4e\u4e8e\u5b9e\u9645\u4ef7\u503c(intrinsic value) \u8d2d\u4e70\u3002<\/p>\n

\n\t\u4ee5\u4e0b\u662f\u92b3\u601d\u6295\u8d44 (Royce & Associates)\u7684\u8463\u4e8b\u603b\u7ecf\u7406Jack Fockler Jr \u548c\u300a\u65f6\u4ee3\u8d22\u667a\u300b\u5c31\u6295\u8d44\u5c0f\u578b\u80a1\u8fdb\u884c\u4e86\u5bf9\u8bdd\u3002\u9510\u601d\u6295\u8d44\u4e5f\u662f\u7f8e\u76db\u96c6\u56e2(Legg Mason)\u7684\u72ec\u8d44\u5b50\u516c\u53f8\uff0c\u7ba1\u7406\u8d44\u4ea7\u5408\u8ba1\u8d85\u8fc76000\u4ebf\u7f8e\u5143\u3002<\/p>\n

\n\t\u8bf7\u548c\u6211\u4eec\u5206\u4eab\u6295\u8d44\u5c0f\u578b\u80a1\u7684\u7ecf\u9a8c\uff1f<\/span><\/p>\n

\n\t\u5c0f\u578b\u80a1\u7531\u4e8e\u89c4\u6a21\u5c0f\uff0c\u80fd\u66f4\u5feb\u5730\u5bf9\u56f0\u5883\u6216\u53d8\u5316\u7684\u73af\u5883\u505a\u51fa\u53cd\u5e94\u3002\u901a\u5e38\uff0c\u5c0f\u578b\u80a1\u516c\u53f8\u6709\u4e0d\u9519\u7684\u8d44\u4ea7\u8d1f\u503a\u8868\uff0c\u9ad8\u5229\u6da6\u7387\uff0c\u4ee5\u53ca\u9ad8\u6210\u957f\u6f5c\u529b\u3002\u7136\u800c\uff0c\u6211\u4eec\u4e0d\u80fd\u8bf4\uff0c\u5c0f\u578b\u80a1\u5c31\u4e00\u5b9a\u505a\u5f97\u597d\uff0c\u6211\u4eec\u80fd\u9884\u8ba1\u7684\u662f\uff0c\u5f53\u7ecf\u6d4e\u6539\u5584\u65f6\uff0c\u4ed6\u4eec\u80fd\u505a\u5f97\u66f4\u597d\u3002<\/p>\n

\n\t\u5c0f\u578b\u80a1\u5728\u5371\u673a\u540e\u603b\u662f\u8fc5\u901f\u6062\u590d\u751f\u673a\u3002\u4f46\u73b0\u5728\u4e0d\u540c\u4ee5\u5f80\uff0c\u8fd9\u662f\u4e3a\u4ec0\u4e48\uff1f<\/span><\/p>\n

\n\t\u57282008\u5e74\u672b\u548c2009\u5e74\u521d\uff0c\u5c0f\u578b\u80a1\u80fd\u5728\u8427\u6761\u4e4b\u4e0b\u6062\u590d\u5f97\u4e0d\u9519\u3002\u5728\u53bb\u5e74\u7684\u9ad8\u5cf0\u671f(\u59822011\u5e744\u670829\u65e5\uff0c2011\u5e7410\u67083\u65e5)\u9aa4\u964d29.3%\u4e4b\u540e\uff0c\u53c8\u4ece\u8c37\u5e95(6\u670830\u65e5)\u6500\u5347\uff0c\u7f57\u7d202000\u7684\u5c0f\u578b\u80a1\u5347\u5e45\u8fbe32.5%\u3002\u76f8\u6bd4\u4e4b\u4e0b\uff0c\u6807\u666e500\u7684\u4e2d\u578b\u80a1\u4ec5\u4e0a\u534726%\u3002\u5386\u53f2\u6570\u636e\u663e\u793a\uff0c\u5728\u4e0b\u964d\u81f3\u5c1110%\u76841\u5e74\uff0c3\u5e74\uff0c5\u5e74\u91cc\uff0c\u56de\u62a5\u90fd\u80fd\u5f88\u597d\u53cd\u5f39\u56de\u6765\u3002\u8fd9\u70b9\u6211\u4eec\u6b63\u62ed\u76ee\u4ee5\u5f85\u3002<\/p>\n

\n\t\u4e3a\u4ec0\u4e48\u6295\u8d44\u8005\u603b\u8bf4\uff0c\u4e0d\u8981\u6295\u8d44\u7f8e\u56fd\u80a1\u7968\uff1f<\/span><\/p>\n

\n\t\u9009\u62e9\u4e0d\u6295\u8d44\u7f8e\u56fd\u7684\u5c0f\u578b\u80a1\uff0c\u65e0\u5f02\u4e8e\u65ad\u9001\u4e86\u957f\u671f\u56de\u62a5\u6f5c\u529b\u3002<\/p>\n

\n\t\u5f53\u5e02\u573a\u603b\u4f53\u56de\u62a5\u4e00\u822c\u3001\u8d70\u4f4e\u751a\u81f3\u5448\u8d1f\u9762\u65f6\uff0c\u67d0\u4e9b\u6574\u4f53\u6295\u8d44\u7ec4\u5408\u7684\u8d44\u4ea7\u7ea7\u522b\u53ef\u80fd\u4e0d\u591f\u7a33\u5065\u800c\u88ab\u6392\u9664\u3002\u4ee5\u957f\u671f\u6765\u770b\uff0c\u5c0f\u578b\u80a1\u4f1a\u8868\u73b0\u66f4\u51fa\u8272\u3002<\/p>\n

\n\t\u5408\u5e76\u6d3b\u52a8\u662f\u5426\u4f1a\u523a\u6fc0\u5c0f\u578b\u80a1\u4ef7\u503c\u589e\u957f\uff1f<\/span><\/p>\n

\n\t\u5e76\u8d2d\u662f\u5c0f\u578b\u80a1\u4e1a\u754c\u6d3b\u52a8\u7684\u4e00\u90e8\u5206\u3002\u5f53\u591a\u6570\u9886\u57df\u7684\u5e95\u7ebf\u5f00\u59cb\u5347\u9ad8\u65f6\uff0c\u5408\u5e76\u6d3b\u52a8\uff08M&A\uff09\u662f\u4e00\u79cd\u8868\u73b0\u589e\u957f\u548c\u53d1\u5c55\u6f5c\u80fd\u7684\u5b9e\u9645\u65b9\u5f0f\u3002\u7a33\u5065\u4e14\u6709\u5145\u88d5\u73b0\u91d1\u7684\u5c0f\u578b\u80a1\uff0c\u901a\u5e38\u4f1a\u6210\u4e3a\u90a3\u4e9b\u671f\u671b\u6269\u5f20\u4e1a\u52a1\u7684\u5927\u516c\u53f8\u7684\u5408\u5e76\u76ee\u6807\u3002<\/p>\n

\n\t\u6bd4\u5982\uff0c\u6211\u6295\u8d44\u4e86\u4e00\u79cd\u5c0f\u578b\u80a1\u6302\u724c\u57fa\u91d1(TNA)\uff0c\u5b83\u548cS&P500\u7d27\u5bc6\u76f8\u5173\u3002\u8fd9\u662f\u5426\u7b97\u662f\u5728\u6295\u8d44\u5c0f\u578b\u80a1\uff1f<\/span><\/p>\n

\n\t\u76ee\u524d\uff0c\u65e0\u8bba\u89c4\u6a21\uff0c\u591a\u6570\u80a1\u7968\u7684\u76f8\u5173\u7cfb\u6570(Correlation)\u90fd\u5f88\u9ad8\uff0c\u6240\u4ee5\u6211\u8ba4\u4e3a\u6295\u8d44\u5c0f\u80a1\u7968\u4f1a\u589e\u503c\u3002\u5c0f\u516c\u53f8\u7684\u957f\u671f\u56de\u62a5\u6f5c\u529b\u8301\u58ee\uff0c\u5b9e\u5728\u4e0d\u80fd\u4ee4\u4eba\u5ffd\u89c6\u3002<\/p>\n

\n\t\u5c0f\u578b\u80a1\u91cc\u7684\u6302\u724c\u57fa\u91d1\u5f88\u666e\u904d\uff0c\u56e0\u4e3a\u5b83\u4eec\u8f7b\u5de7\u7684\u6295\u8d44\u7ec4\u5408\uff0c\u88ab\u4f4e\u4f30\u7684\u673a\u4f1a\uff0c\u5438\u5f15\u4eba\u7684\u5b89\u5168\uff0c\u4f7f\u5f97\u6d3b\u8dc3\u7684\u7ba1\u7406\u5c42\u4f1a\u6709\u66f4\u597d\u65b9\u5f0f\u53bb\u6295\u8d44\u3002\u5c24\u5176\u662f\u90a3\u4e9b\u7ecf\u8fc7\u65f6\u95f4\u68c0\u9a8c\u6709\u4ef7\u503c\u53d6\u5411\u7684\u5c0f\u578b\u516c\u53f8\uff0c\u7ecf\u7406\u4eba\u66f4\u52a0\u6709\u673a\u4f1a\u4e3a\u5176\u589e\u503c\u3002<\/p>\n

\n\t\u5f53\u5e02\u573a\u56de\u5347\u65f6\uff0c\u5927\u578b\u80a1\u4f1a\u9996\u5148\u56de\u5347\uff1b\u7136\u800c\u5f53\u5e02\u573a\u964d\u843d\u65f6\uff0c\u5374\u662f\u5c0f\u578b\u80a1\u9996\u5148\u53d7\u56f0\u3002\u5982\u679c\u662f\u8fd9\u6837\uff0c\u4e3a\u4ec0\u4e48\u8981\u6295\u8d44\u5c0f\u578b\u80a1\uff1f<\/span><\/p>\n

\n\t\u8fd9\u4e0d\u662f\u7edd\u5bf9\u7684\uff0c\u5c0f\u578b\u80a1\u4e5f\u4f1a\u5e26\u9886\u56de\u5347\u3002\u4e0d\u8fc7\uff0c\u8fd9\u4e0d\u662f\u8bf4\uff0c\u6295\u8d44\u4e86\u5c31\u4e00\u5b9a\u4f1a\u6da8\u3002\u5c0f\u578b\u80a1\u6709\u8f83\u597d\u957f\u671f\u6548\u76ca-\u98ce\u9669(return-risk)\u7ed3\u6784\uff0c\u6295\u8d44\u8005\u9700\u8981\u4ee5\u957f\u8fdc\u4f5c\u4e3a\u6295\u8d44\u76ee\u6807\u3002<\/p>\n

\n\t\u76f8\u6bd4\u56fd\u9645\u5e02\u573a\u7684\u9700\u6c42\uff0c\u7f8e\u56fd\u56fd\u5185\u5e02\u573a\u7684\u9700\u6c42\u662f\u5426\u4e3a\u5c0f\u578b\u80a1\u63d0\u4f9b\u4e86\u66f4\u597d\u7684\u673a\u4f1a\uff1f<\/span><\/p>\n

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