\n\t\u7f8e\u8054\u50a81\u6708\u4f1a\u8bae\u8bb0\u5f55\u663e\u793a\uff0c\u53ea\u6709\u4e24\u4f4d\u5b98\u5458\u5c31\u9000\u51fa\u91cf\u5bbd\u8868\u793a\u62c5\u5fe7\uff0c\u540c\u65f6\u4e5f\u6709\u4e2a\u522b\u7406\u4e8b\u8ba4\u4e3a\uff0c\u4e3a\u4e86\u907f\u514d\u7ecf\u6d4e\u8fc7\u70ed\uff0c \u7f8e\u8054\u50a8\u6216\u6709\u9700\u8981\u5728\u77ed\u671f\u5185\u52a0\u606f\uff0c\u4e0e\u4f1a\u5b98\u5458\u4e5f\u8ba4\u4e3a\uff0c\u6709\u9700\u8981\u8c03\u6574\u52a0\u606f\u4e8b\u4ef6\u7684\u653f\u7b56\u6307\u5f15\u3002\u5bf9\u4e8e\u7f8e\u8054\u50a8\u7684\u6781\u4f4e\u606f\u7387\u7b49\u5bbd\u677e\u653f\u7b56\uff0c\u534e\u5c14\u8857\u7684\u4e0d\u723d\u4f3c\u4e4e\u5927\u5927\u8d85\u8fc7\u56fd\u4f1a\u548c\u53c2\u8bae\u9662\uff0c\u6279\u8bc4\u6307\u7f8e\u8054\u50a8\u7684\u653f\u7b56\u5c31\u50cf\u6fc0\u7d20\uff0c\u5236\u9020\u51fa\u865a\u5047\u800c\u865a\u5f31\u7684\u590d\u82cf\u3002<\/p>\n
\n\t\u300a\u7ebd\u7ea6\u65f6\u62a5\u300b\u62a5\u9053\uff0c\u4ece\u6700\u8fd1\u4e00\u6b21\u91d1\u878d\u5371\u673a\u7206\u53d1\u5f00\u59cb\uff0c\u7f8e\u8054\u50a8\u5c31\u5f00\u59cb\u5927\u89c4\u6a21\u7684\u523a\u6fc0\u8ba1\u5212\uff0c\u8fd9\u5e2e\u52a9\u63d0\u632f\u4e86\u80a1\u7968\u548c\u8bc1\u5238\u5e02\u573a\uff0c\u4e5f\u8ba9\u534e\u5c14\u8857\u5728\u8fc7\u7a0b\u4e2d\u8d5a\u5f97\u4e0d\u5c11\u6cb9\u6c34\u3002\u4f46\u5373\u4fbf\u5982\u6b64\uff0c\u8fd8\u662f\u6709\u5f88\u591a\u6295\u8d44\u8005\u548c\u94f6\u884c\u5bb6\u5bf9\u7f8e\u8054\u50a8\u76ee\u524d\u7684\u884c\u52a8\u62a5\u6709\u8d28\u7591\uff0c\u751a\u81f3\u6124\u6012\u3002<\/p>\n
\n\t\u4ed6\u4eec\u4e2d\u6709\u4e0d\u5c11\u4eba\u8868\u793a\uff0c\u592e\u884c\u7684\u653f\u7b56\u662f\u6709\u5bb3\u7684\uff0c\u800c\u4e14\u4ed6\u4eec\u76f8\u4fe1\uff0c\u8fd9\u4e2a\u6708\u624d\u521a\u521a\u63a5\u66ff\u4f2f\u5357\u514b\u4e0a\u4efb\u5e76\u5c06\u7ee7\u627f\u4f2f\u5357\u514b\u65f6\u4ee3\u653f\u7b56\u7684\u8036\u4f26\u4f1a\u6454\u4e2a\u5927\u8ddf\u5934\u3002<\/p>\n
\n\t\u53cc\u7ebf\uff08DoubleLine\uff09\u6295\u8d44\u516c\u53f8\u9996\u5e2d\u6267\u884c\u5b98\u6770\u5f17\u91cc\u5188\u62c9\u514b\uff08Jeffrey E. Gundlach\uff09\u76f4\u8a00\uff1a“\u6211\u771f\u7684\u4e0d\u662f\u5f88\u559c\u6b22\u7f8e\u8054\u50a8\u3002\u6211\u5e0c\u671b\u5b83\u4e0d\u8981\u518d\u50cf\u73b0\u5728\u8fd9\u6837\u64cd\u63a7\u5e02\u573a\u3002”<\/p>\n
\n\t\u4ece\u5bf9\u7f8e\u8054\u50a8\u7684\u6279\u8bc4\u53ef\u4ee5\u770b\u51fa\uff0c\u534e\u5c14\u8857\u5bf9\u592e\u884c\u7684\u53cd\u611f\u4e0d\u662f\u51b2\u7740\u653f\u5e9c\u5e72\u9884\uff0c\u800c\u662f\u56e0\u4e3a\u4ed6\u4eec\u5e0c\u671b\u7ec8\u6b62\u6700\u8fd1\u51e0\u5341\u5e74\u7684\u5927\u8d77\u5927\u843d\u5bf9\u7ecf\u6d4e\u4ea7\u751f\u7684\u4f24\u5bb3\u3002<\/p>\n
\n\t\u90e8\u5206\u534e\u5c14\u8857\u4eba\u58eb\u8868\u793a\u7f8e\u8054\u50a8\u7684\u6b63\u5728\u62c9\u5927\u8d2b\u5bcc\u5dee\u8ddd\u3002\u5188\u62c9\u514b\u8bf4\uff1a“\u8fd9\u770b\u8d77\u6765\u5c31\u662f\uff0c\u5373\u4fbf\u4f60\u542c\u4e86\u5f88\u591a\u53e3\u53f7\uff0c\u4f46\u8fd9\u4e0d\u4f1a\u904f\u5236\u8d22\u5bcc\u4e24\u6781\u5206\u5316\u3002”<\/p>\n
\n\t\u7f8e\u8054\u50a8\u7684\u6279\u8bc4\u8005\u5728\u67d0\u4e9b\u6700\u5927\u7684\u9884\u8a00\u4e0a\u90fd\u51fa\u9519\u4e86\u3002\u592e\u884c\u7684\u523a\u6fc0\u8ba1\u5212\u5e76\u6ca1\u6709\u5236\u9020\u901a\u80c0\u6216\u8ba9\u7f8e\u5143\u8d2c\u503c\u3002\u7f8e\u8054\u50a8\u5728\u534e\u5c14\u8857\u7684\u652f\u6301\u8005\u4eec\u8ba4\u4e3a\uff0c\u7f8e\u8054\u50a8\u5728\u5371\u673a\u540e\u7684\u5927\u80c6\u884c\u52a8\u907f\u514d\u4e86\u53ef\u6015\u7684\u5927\u8870\u9000\uff0c\u5982\u679c\u8870\u9000\u53d1\u751f\uff0c\u5c31\u4f1a\u8ba9\u4f4e\u6536\u5165\u4eba\u7fa4\u7684\u751f\u6d3b\u66f4\u52a0\u56f0\u96be\u3002\u7f8e\u8054\u50a8\u672c\u8eab\u4e5f\u627f\u8ba4\uff0c\u5176\u5bbd\u677e\u7684\u8d27\u5e01\u653f\u7b56\u6709\u5229\u6709\u5f0a\u3002\u7f8e\u8054\u50a8\u7684\u5b98\u5458\u4eec\u5df2\u7ecf\u6e05\u695a\u8bf4\u660e\uff0c\u4ed6\u4eec\u6b63\u5728\u7559\u610f\u65b0\u7684\u98ce\u9669\uff0c\u6bd4\u5982\u5e02\u573a\u4e0a\u51fa\u73b0\u8fc7\u5ea6\u6295\u673a\u3002<\/p>\n
\n\t\u8fd9\u4e2a\u6708\uff0c\u8036\u4f26\u5728\u56fd\u4f1a\u4e0a\u66fe\u8bf4\uff1a“\u6211\u76f8\u4fe1\u6211\u662f\u4e00\u4e2a\u7406\u667a\u7684\u592e\u884c\u884c\u957f\uff0c\u800c\u73b0\u5728\u662f\u975e\u5e38\u65f6\u671f\u3002”<\/p>\n
\n\t\u4f46\u662f\u6279\u8bc4\u8005\u4eec\u8bf4\uff0c\u7f8e\u8054\u50a8\u5e76\u6ca1\u6709\u5438\u53d6\u591a\u5c11\u6559\u8bad\uff0c\u800c\u4e14\u5f88\u53ef\u80fd\u91cd\u8e48\u8fc7\u53bb30\u5e74\u7684\u8986\u8f99\u3002\u6295\u8d44\u516c\u53f8GMO\u7684\u5408\u4f19\u521b\u529e\u4eba\u6770\u91cc\u7c73\u683c\u5170\u745f\u59c6\uff08Jeremy Grantham\uff09\u8bf4\uff1a“\u6211\u7684\u731c\u6d4b\u662f\uff0c\u7f8e\u8054\u50a8\u4f1a\u8d70\u8001\u8def\uff0c\u76f4\u5230\u6211\u4eec\u518d\u6b21\u8fdb\u5165\u8fc7\u53bb\u7684\u6ce1\u6cab\u65f6\u4ee3\u3002”<\/p>\n
\n\t\u5404\u6000\u4e0d\u6ee1\u7684\u6279\u8bc4\u8005\u4eec\u5728\u4e00\u4e2a\u89c2\u70b9\u4e0a\u8fbe\u6210\u4e00\u81f4\uff0c\u800c\u4e14\u8fd9\u4e2a\u89c2\u70b9\u8ba9\u4ed6\u4eec\u53ef\u4ee5\u5f88\u65b9\u4fbf\u5730\u53d1\u51fa\u8b66\u544a——\u5373\u4fbf\u7ecf\u6d4e\u51fa\u73b0\u590d\u82cf\u8ff9\u8c61\u3002<\/p>\n
\n\t\u6279\u8bc4\u8005\u4eec\u6307\u8d23\u7f8e\u8054\u50a8\u63a5\u8fd1\u96f6\u7684\u4f4e\u606f\u653f\u7b56\u548c\u5927\u89c4\u6a21\u8d2d\u503a\u8ba1\u5212\u5c31\u50cf\u6fc0\u7d20\u4e00\u6837\uff0c\u5236\u9020\u51fa\u4eba\u9020\u7684\u590d\u82cf\uff0c\u800c\u8fd9\u79cd\u590d\u82cf\u5728\u7f8e\u8054\u50a8\u63a8\u51fa\u91cf\u5bbd\u65f6\u5c31\u4f1a\u6d88\u51cf\u3002<\/p>\n
\n\t\u8d22\u7ecf\u7f51\u7edc\u5a92\u4f53\u516c\u53f8Minyanville\u7684\u603b\u88c1\u3001\u524d\u5bf9\u51b2\u57fa\u91d1\u7ecf\u7406\u6258\u5fb7\u54c8\u91cc\u900a\uff08Todd Harrison\uff09\u8bf4\uff1a“\u8fd9\u662f\u6cbb\u6807\u4e0d\u6cbb\u672c\u7684\u3002”<\/p>\n
\n\t\u6279\u8bc4\u8005\u4eec\u8bf4\uff0c\u4f4e\u606f\u4e0d\u80fd\u521b\u9020\u6301\u4e45\u7e41\u8363\u7684\u539f\u56e0\u4e4b\u4e00\u662f\uff0c\u5f53\u8bb8\u591a\u4eba\u90fd\u8d1f\u503a\u7d2f\u7d2f\u7684\u65f6\u5019\uff0c\u4fbf\u5b9c\u7684\u8d37\u6b3e\u5e76\u4e0d\u80fd\u5e2e\u4e0a\u4ec0\u4e48\u5fd9\u3002\u4ed6\u4eec\u8ba4\u4e3a\uff0c\u5728\u8fd9\u79cd\u6c1b\u56f4\u4e0b\uff0c\u592e\u884c\u9f13\u52b1\u4eba\u4eec\u589e\u52a0\u8d37\u6b3e\u7684\u653f\u7b56\u662f\u6709\u8bef\u5bfc\u6027\u7684\uff0c\u751a\u81f3\u53ef\u80fd\u662f\u5f92\u52b3\u7684\u3002<\/p>\n
\n\t\u6295\u8d44\u7ba1\u7406\u516c\u53f8Hoisington\u7684\u9996\u5e2d\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5b66\u5bb6\u83b1\u897f\u4ea8\u7279\uff08Lay H. Hunt\uff09\u8868\u793a\uff1a“\u501f\u503a\u8fd8\u503a\u53ea\u4f1a\u8ba9\u95ee\u9898\u52a0\u91cd\u3002\u4f60\u5fc5\u987b\u5148\u6e05\u503a\u3002”<\/p>\n
\n\t\u4e0d\u5c11\u7f8e\u8054\u50a8\u7684\u6279\u8bc4\u8005\u90fd\u5021\u8bae\u5b9e\u884c\u5176\u4ed6\u66f4\u4e25\u5389\u7684\u653f\u7b56\u3002\u4ed6\u4eec\u8ba4\u4e3a\uff0c\u5982\u679c\u592e\u884c\u5f53\u521d\u505a\u5f97\u5c11\u4e00\u70b9\uff0c\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5371\u673a\u4e4b\u540e\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5c31\u4f1a\u6709\u66f4\u5f3a\u52b2\u7684\u590d\u82cf\uff0c\u56e0\u4e3a\u5f53\u8d44\u672c\u4e3b\u4e49\u53ef\u4ee5\u6e05\u9664\u5185\u90e8\u7684\u4e0d\u7ecf\u6d4e\u6d3b\u52a8\u65f6\uff0c\u8d44\u672c\u4e3b\u4e49\u8fd0\u884c\u5f97\u6700\u597d\u3002<\/p>\n
\n\t\u683c\u5170\u745f\u59c6\u8bf4\uff1a“\u7ecf\u6d4e\u672c\u53ef\u80fd\u53cd\u5f39\u5f97\u66f4\u6709\u529b\u3002”\u4ed6\u8fd8\u8bf4\uff0c\u592e\u884c\u5f53\u521d\u5982\u679c\u51cf\u5c11\u5e72\u9884\uff0c\u5c31“\u80fd\u89e3\u51b3\u9053\u5fb7\u5371\u673a\u4e2d\u4e25\u91cd\u7684\u90e8\u5206\uff0c\u5c31\u50cf\u6c83\u5c14\u514b\u6253\u7834\u901a\u80c0\u4e00\u6837”\u3002\u4fdd\u7f57\u6c83\u5c14\u514b\uff08Paul A. Volker\uff09\u662f\u7f8e\u8054\u50a8\u524d\u4e3b\u5e2d\uff0c\u4ed6\u57281980\u5e74\u4ee3\u63a8\u884c\u8fc7\u76f8\u5f53\u4e25\u5389\u7684\u653f\u7b56\u3002<\/p>\n
\n\t\u867d\u7136\u5728\u534e\u5c14\u8857\u6709\u4e0d\u5c11\u6279\u8bc4\u7f8e\u8054\u50a8\u7684\u58f0\u97f3\uff0c\u91d1\u878d\u4e1a\u5185\u5927\u591a\u6570\u4eba\u90fd\u652f\u6301\u592e\u884c\u3002<\/p>\n
\n\t\u540c\u60c5\u7f8e\u8054\u50a8\u7684\u4eba\u8bf4\uff0c\u5982\u679c\u5371\u673a\u540e\u7f8e\u8054\u50a8\u6ca1\u6709\u5f00\u95f8\u653e\u6c34\uff0c\u5c31\u6709\u53ef\u80fd\u53d1\u751f\u66f4\u5927\u578b\u7684\u94f6\u884c\u5d29\u6e83\u548c\u5e02\u573a\u8427\u6761\u3002\u4ed6\u4eec\u8bf4\uff0c\u8981\u51cf\u5c11\u6c89\u6ca1\u7684\u5371\u9669\uff0c\u9664\u4e86\u5f7b\u5e95\u6539\u53d8\u5168\u7403\u94f6\u884c\u7cfb\u7edf\u8fd0\u8425\u7684\u65b9\u5f0f\u4e4b\u5916\uff0c\u7f8e\u8054\u50a8\u6ca1\u6709\u592a\u591a\u5176\u4ed6\u9009\u62e9\u3002<\/p>\n
\n\t\u592a\u5e73\u6d0b\u6295\u8d44\u7ba1\u7406\u516c\u53f8\uff08Pimco\uff09\u6295\u8d44\u7ec4\u5408\u7ecf\u7406\u6258\u5c3c\u514b\u96f7\u68ee\u9f50\uff08Tony Crescenzi\uff09\u8bf4\uff1a“\u7f8e\u8054\u50a8\u4e00\u76f4\u5728\u505a\u5b83\u53ef\u4ee5\u505a\u7684\u6765\u7a33\u5b9a\u8fd9\u4e2a\u672c\u8eab\u5c31\u5f88\u4e0d\u7a33\u5b9a\u7684\u7cfb\u7edf\uff0c\u6211\u4eec\u8fd8\u5728\u7528\u8fd9\u4e2a\u7cfb\u7edf\u3002”<\/p>\n
\n\t\u53e6\u5916\uff0c\u4e3a\u7f8e\u8054\u50a8\u8fa9\u62a4\u7684\u4eba\u6307\u51fa\uff0c\u592e\u884c\u653f\u7b56\u53ef\u4ee5\u5f3a\u5316\u8ba9\u56fd\u5bb6\u51cf\u8f7b\u503a\u52a1\u8d1f\u62c5\u7684\u7ecf\u6d4e\u6761\u4ef6\u3002\u5bf9\u51b2\u57fa\u91d1\u6865\u6c34\u8054\u5408\u57fa\u91d1\u7684\u521b\u59cb\u4eba\u96f7\u8fbe\u91cc\u5965\uff08Ray Dalio\uff09\u79f0\u4e4b\u4e3a“\u7f8e\u4e3d\u7684\u51cf\u503a”\u3002<\/p>\n
\n\t\u4f46\u5bf9\u51b2\u57fa\u91d1\u5c3c\u514b\u65af\u8054\u5408\u57fa\u91d1\u516c\u53f8\uff08Kynikos Associates\uff09\u7684\u8a79\u59c6\u65af\u67e5\u8bfa\u65af\uff08James S. Chanos\uff09\u8bf4\uff0c\u5b9e\u9645\u4e0a\uff0c\u503a\u52a1\u7684\u5176\u4e2d\u4e00\u4e2a\u91cd\u8981\u8861\u91cf\u6307\u6570\u73b0\u5728\u6bd4\u5371\u673a\u524d\u66f4\u9ad8\u3002“\u90a3\u4e2a\u7f8e\u4e3d\u7684\u51cf\u503a\u5e76\u6ca1\u6709\u53d1\u751f\u3002\u6211\u4eec\u6574\u4e2a\u793e\u4f1a\u7684\u8d1f\u503a\u6bd42007\u5e74\u7684\u65f6\u5019\u8981\u9ad8\u3002”<\/p>\n
\n\t\u6279\u8bc4\u8005\u4eec\u8bf4\uff0c\u7f8e\u8054\u50a8\u9f13\u52b1\u8d37\u6b3e\u7684\u65f6\u671f\u8d8a\u957f\uff0c\u66f4\u7cdf\u7cd5\u7684\u4e8b\u60c5\u5c31\u4f1a\u53d1\u751f\u3002\u57282008\u5e74\u7684\u5371\u673a\u4e2d\u5927\u8d5a\u4e00\u7b14\u7684\u5bf9\u51b2\u57fa\u91d1\u73af\u5b87\u6295\u8d44\u516c\u53f8(Universa Investments)\u7684\u521b\u529e\u4eba\u9a6c\u514b\u65af\u6ce2\u8328\u7eb3\u6208\u5c14\uff08Mark Sptznagel\uff09\u8bf4\uff0c\u901a\u8fc7\u4fdd\u6301\u4f4e\u606f\uff0c\u7f8e\u8054\u50a8\u9f13\u52b1\u516c\u53f8\u517b\u6210\u4e0d\u826f\u4e60\u60ef\uff0c\u6bd4\u5982\u501f\u94b1\u4e70\u81ea\u5df1\u5bb6\u7684\u80a1\u7968\u3002“\u8fd9\u662f\u65e0\u6cd5\u5bb9\u5fcd\u7684\u884c\u5f84\u3002\u7f8e\u8054\u50a8\u5b8c\u5168\u5c31\u662f\u903c\u5927\u5bb6\u8fd9\u6837\u505a\u3002”<\/p>\n
\n\t\u6279\u8bc4\u8005\u4eec\u5728\u60f3\uff0c\u4ed6\u4eec\u662f\u5426\u5df2\u7ecf\u6210\u4e3a\u4e00\u79cd\u53ea\u80fd\u4f9d\u8d56\u5bbd\u677e\u8d27\u5e01\u653f\u7b56\u7684\u7406\u8bba\u7684\u727a\u7272\u54c1\u3002\u5bf9\u51b2\u57fa\u91d1Greenlight Capital\u4e3b\u5e2d\u5927\u536b\u827e\u56e0\u970d\u6069\uff08David Einhorn\uff09\u6279\u8bc4\uff0c\u6781\u4f4e\u7684\u5b58\u6b3e\u606f\u7387\u5b9e\u9645\u4e0a\u6b63\u5728\u8ba9\u4eba\u4eec\u7684\u6536\u5165\u53d7\u635f\uff0c\u800c\u8fd9\u4e9b\u6536\u5165\u672c\u53ef\u4ee5\u6709\u6548\u5730\u63d0\u632f\u7ecf\u6d4e\u3002<\/p>\n
\n\t\u5f53\u534e\u5c14\u8857\u8981\u53bb\u4fdd\u536b\u5b58\u6b3e\u4eba\u7684\u65f6\u5019\uff0c\u7f8e\u8054\u50a8\u7684\u652f\u6301\u4eba\u90fd\u7ffb\u8d77\u4e86\u767d\u773c\u3002\u4ed6\u4eec\u8bf4\uff0c\u8fd9\u4e9b\u8bdd\u662f\u57fa\u4e8e\u5bf9\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5728\u8c03\u6574\u671f\u5982\u4f55\u8fd0\u4f5c\u7684\u5ffd\u89c6\u800c\u4ea7\u751f\u7684\u3002\u7f57\u65af\u798f\u7814\u7a76\u9662\u7684\u7814\u7a76\u5458\u9ea6\u514b\u5eb7\u514b\u8428\u5c14\uff08Mike Konczal\uff09\u8bf4\uff0c\u51ef\u6069\u65af\u66fe\u6307\u51fa\uff0c\u5728\u5927\u8427\u6761\u65f6\u671f\uff0c\u91d1\u878d\u5bb6\u4eec\u4e0d\u5207\u5b9e\u9645\u5730\u5e0c\u671b\u4ed6\u4eec\u7684\u8d44\u672c\u53ef\u4ee5\u4ea7\u751f\u9ad8\u56de\u62a5\u3002<\/p>\n
\n\t\u8fd9\u4e2a\u6708\u5728\u56fd\u4f1a\u7b54\u8fa9\u65f6\uff0c\u8036\u4f26\u81ea\u5df1\u4e5f\u8bf4\uff1a“\u5b58\u6b3e\u4eba\u53ef\u671f\u7684\u56de\u62a5\u7387\u786e\u5b9e\u53d6\u51b3\u4e8e\u7ecf\u6d4e\u7684\u5065\u5eb7\u7a0b\u5ea6\u3002”<\/p>\n
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